Fantasy Football: Is Adrian Peterson Really #1?

LaDainian Tomlinson eased every fantasy player's heart. You got the sure thing, you didn't have to think, and it always paid off. LT was worthy of the respect he gained during his amazing run as the undisputed first pick in fantasy football. He graced fantasy magazine covers to the point that the publishers had to search for other players to enshrine out of boredom of the obvious.

That boredom is no more. The public though, wants a sure-fire can't-miss first-pick-over-all stud running back. Quarterbacks and Wide Recievers cannot be drafted number 1. In fact, there's a bit of an unwritten rule that non-running-backs can't be drafted in the first 6 picks. Tom Brady tried to break that rule last year, and look what happened. Bernard Pollard doesn't seem to like quarterbacks drafted in the first round of fantasy football.

So now the search has rested on Adrian Peterson. No one is questioning it, he's the new LT. It almost seems like the public was so desperate to find a new LT that they settled on the first one who came along. No doubt, Peterson had an amazing rookie season. He had a pretty stellar second season too. Problem is, he got hurt, and he was not the top scoring RB. Tomlinson has missed 1 game in his entire career. LT also scored 2 more total touchdowns than AP last year.

Now this is not an argument to put LT over AP or really, anyone over AP. What I'm trying to say here is to have an open mind. Go ahead and pick Peterson with the first pick this year, but make sure to re-analyze the position before next years draft. If he fails to top the league in RB scoring again, then he is still not on LT status yet.

Or just maybe, if you want to buck the trent and open your mind and take a large gamble, pick Tom Brady #1.

(disclaimer: I am not a Tom Brady or New England Patriots fan. I just have a feeling that we're going to see a little bit of 2007 all over again)

Fan's Decision - Top Fantasy Running Backs

Today's Fan Decision Poll was for Running Backs. Adrian Peterson was probably #1 on 90 percent of the votes and listed on 100% of the top 5 lists. I asked a couple of message boards who their top 5 running backs were.

For 1st place votes, 5 points were awarded, 2nd place - 4 points, 3rd place - 3 points, 4nd place - 2 points, 5th place - 1 point.

Adrian Peterson - 173
Maurice Jones-Drew - 112
Matt Forte - 91
Michael Turner - 81
Steven Jackson -33
LaDainian Tomlinson - 20
Chris Johnson - 11
Steve Slaton - 10
DeAngelo Williams - 7
Pierre Thomas - 4
Frank Gore - 4
Thomas Jones - 2
Brandon Jacobs - 2
Brian Westbrook - 2
Larry Johnson - 1
Derrick Ward - 1
Clinton Portis - 1

It looks more and more like Maurice Jones-Drew is growing into the consensus #2 back in the land. Thanks to all the posters for participating in this poll

Fantasy Football Top Running Backs

Running backs are usually the lifeblood of any fantasy football team, but this year looks to be a bit different. The number of platoon backfields is increasing, and workhorse backs are harder to find. With the importance of landing a stud at this position, our rankings tend to lean towards the veterans.

Top 10 Running Backs for 2009

1. Adrian Peterson - Minnesota Vikings

I've been unsuccessfully searching for reasons why I should NOT put A.P. here at number 1. Running behind a great offensive line, Peterson has rushed for the third most yards all time in a player's first two seasons, only behind Eric Dickerson and Jim Brown. He is a workhorse, but doesn't get a ton of looks in the passing game (only 21 receptions last year).

2. LaDainian Tomlinson - San Diego Chargers

Most fantasy experts have L.T. slotted below this spot, but here's a nod for the steady veteran. Tomlinson has only missed 1 game in his 8 year career, while amassing more than 1,100 yards in every season. 2008 did mark a decline in his numbers though. He rushed for a career low 1,110 yards, hauled in his second fewest receptions at 52, and failed to complete a pass for the first time since 2002. Despite the decline, and the dreaded 30th birthday in June, L.T. is still such a steady pick in the midst of a bunch of question marks in the first round.

3. Matt Forte - Chicago Bears

It was so hard to put a 2nd year player into the third spot here, but after last season, we think it's justified. Forte is one of the few remaining workhorse backs, and with the addition of Jay Cutler, defenses will have a little more to worry about.

4. Michael Turner - Atlanta Falcons

Turner could end up at the top of this list by January. Problem is, he disappeared from the stat sheet during several games against tough rushing defenses. This problem escalates considering the 2009 schedule, which is the toughest run-defense schedule in the league. However, Turner will receive a little boost in blocking and the ability to distract covering linebackers with the addition of Tony Gonzalez.

5. Maurice Jones-Drew - Jacksonville Jaguars

Every year, I want to tell everyone that this guy's frame just can't hold up in the NFL. I still believe this, but stats have proved me wrong so far. MJD has missed less than 2 games to injury in his first three seasons. What's more to like is that Fred Taylor has moved on, leaving more action for Pocket Hercules. He is also a major weapon in the passing game, pulling in 62 receptions in 2008.

6. Steven Jackson - St. Louis Rams

Jackson's stock has been on the decline since his amazing peak season of 2006. Injuries have held him back a bit the last two seasons. However, with St. Louis planning to employ a run-heavy west coast offense similar to the Eagles, Jackson will be a workhorse with the chance to be the class of the league.

7. Clinton Portis - Washington Redskins

If you only count the first half of last year, Portis would probably replace A.P. as the #1 back. The NFL, however, plays a 16 game season in which Portis stumbled through the final 8 games, topping the 80-yard mark only one time. Ladell Betts is sneaking up and stealing more and more carries, but Portis remains a workhorse for the Redskins as he has totalled more than 1200 yards rushing and 320 carries the last two seasons while playing all 32 games.

8. Thomas Jones - New York Jets

The departure of Brett Favre could mean a stacked defensive front against Jones, but with rookie Mark Sanchez taking over, it also means the Jets will have to lean on their running game more. Jones was in the media for negative comments towards Favre and the Jets and missing most of the team's voluntary workouts, but lately has said, "I'm happy. I'm here for camp. I'm excited for the season." The major concerns lie with the emerging Leon Washington, and the traded-up-for Shonn Greene in the third round of the NFL draft.

9. Brian Westbrook - Philadelphia Eagles

If this guy could just stay healthy, he'd be a sure-fire top 3 pick every year. After two offseason surgeries and the drafting of LeSean McCoy in the 2nd round, Westbrook's stock has dropped off a bit. He is still a game-changer when he's on the field. If he stays healthy, he could very well be the juice that puts a fantasy team into the championship. The latest reports are good too: Eagles coach Andy Reid says that Westbrook is cutting and running at full speed.

10. Steve Slaton - Houston Texans

Slaton started 2008 totally under the radar as Houston's third choice at running back. His durability has been questioned, but after 268 carries last year, he quieted those sentiments a little bit. On an improving (possibly soon-to-be powerhouse) offense, Slaton looks to repeat the success he found in his rookie season. Only this year, the pressure is on.

Just missed the Top 10:

• Chris Johnson - Explosive, high ceiling, but shares the backfield.
• Frank Gore - Workhorse you may be able to steal in 2nd round
• DeAngelo Williams - Healthy Stewart + tougher schedule = won't repeat 2008 performance
• Marion Barber - Hasn't proven he can take entire load, but will be leaned on more with T.O. gone
• Larry Johnson - Diving over line early in August is a good sign that LJ is back.
  

Debating the theory: Draft Running Backs First

Two years ago, running backs were the aces of fantasy football. With a draft board full of ball hogs such as LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Steven Jackson, everyone knew the smart thing to do in the first round was to take a stud running back.

Last year more people began breaking the rule and going wide receiver or quarterback in the first round, searching for the next or drafting the actual Tom Brady. Well, with the infamous injury, the new era of drafting sizzled out a bit, losing some of it's momentum going into 2009.

It seems like there is a bit of confusion this year. Is Adrian Peterson a sure thing? He didn't even lead the league in fantasy points last year, some guy named DeAngelo Williams (yeah I know who he is, I drafted him and then traded him away during his hype thinking that's all it was - and I still think that's all it is) topped the league in scoring for running backs. Number 2? A rookie! Matt Forte was second in scoring. Note - please disregard the last blog entry saying not to draft rookies in Draft Tip #4. Some idiot wrote that. So going back to the original point of this paragraph, the days of good old, never-doubted, #1-pick-is-LT are gone.

There is something shifting the land of the NFL. Mike Shanahanism. The man that would send out literal armies to man the running back position made it really tough to be a fantasy owner. There are teams with dual threats, tri threats, quad threats (freakin Patriots), and threats to be named later. The aforementioned Adrian Peterson? Still dealing with that pesky Chester Taylor stealing carries. To finish out this new point, just look at the third highest scoring running back of 2008: Maurice Jones Drew. Not even 1000 yards rushing (824), but had 14 total touchdowns and pulled in 565 receiving yards. And he only started 3 GAMES!

So something is going on out there in fantasy land, and we're going to dive into numbers a bit more here and see if we can figure it out together. Note that I haven't taken a real position on this debate yet because I'm still crunching all these numbers. Considering that Drew Brees outscored everyone and Andre Johnson scored over a dozen points more than leading RB DeAngelo Williams, let's look at the following possible first six rounds.

Each of these half-mock drafts are selected players that would likely be available from a 5th or 6th draft position in a 10-team league with 1 QB, 2 RBs, and 3 WRs starting:

Rd	Pos	Player	Pts*		Pos	Player	Pts*		Pos	Player	Pts*
1	RB	Tomlinson	275		QB	Brady	423		WR	Fitzgerald	320
2	RB	Gore	240		WR	Cal. Johnson	265		RB	Gore	240
3	WR	S. Smith	250		WR	S. Smith	250		QB	P. Manning	380
4	WR	Housh	230		WR	Housh	230		WR	Housh	230
5	QB	Warner	360		RB	McFadden	185		RB	McFadden	185
6	WR	B. Edwards	218		RB	Bush	180		WR	B. Edwards	218
Points: 1573					Points: 1533				Points: 1573

Rd	Pos	Player	Pts*		Pos	Player	Pts*		Pos	Player	Pts
1	WR	Fitzgerald	320		RB	Tomlinson	275		WR	Fitzgerald	320
2	WR	Cal. Johnson	265		QB	Brees	388		RB	Gore	240
3	WR	S. Smith	250		WR	S. Smith	250		WR	S. Smith	250
4	QB	A. Rodgers	375		WR	Housh	230		RB	R. Grant	210
5	RB	McFadden	185		WR	A. Gonzalez	225		WR	A. Gonzalez	225
6	RB	Bush	180		RB	Bush	180		QB	Romo	330
	Points: 1575				Points: 1548				Points: 1575

* - Point totals are based on 2008 fantasy points in particular players' slot

Sorting through these numbers, we see that 1) There isn't much difference between any way you might draft, and 2) The old theory of going running back - running back in the draft is still justified.

But we do learn now that it isn't all so neccesary to draft two running backs first. So let's look at a few more stats here to try to figure out what to do with this 2009 draft.

Pos	Avg Pts - Starters	Avg Pts - Bench	Difference
QB	350	250	100
RB	280	180	100
WR	275	175	100

In this table, the first stat column is the average of the top 10 WRs, RBs, and QBs. The 2nd stat column (Bench players) considers the average of the 11-15th ranked QBs, the 21-30th ranked RBs and the 31-40th ranked WRs. The stat proves itself somewhat useless considering that the same difference in point total exists from studs to bench players at all three major positions.

Well, in a way, we have proved a point with all of this somewhat nonsense. There aren't many reasons to stick with the old ways of grabbing the running backs early. In fact, we have pretty much proven that one can draft whichever way he likes (without dipping into the tight end, kicker, or defense pool too early) and not see a big difference in point totals.

After all of these numbers, my advice for 2009: Draft with your gut instinct.

And if you don't have a gut instinct, you'd better stick around and keep reading these blog posts.