Fan's Decision - Top Fantasy Running Backs

Today's Fan Decision Poll was for Running Backs. Adrian Peterson was probably #1 on 90 percent of the votes and listed on 100% of the top 5 lists. I asked a couple of message boards who their top 5 running backs were.

For 1st place votes, 5 points were awarded, 2nd place - 4 points, 3rd place - 3 points, 4nd place - 2 points, 5th place - 1 point.

Adrian Peterson - 173
Maurice Jones-Drew - 112
Matt Forte - 91
Michael Turner - 81
Steven Jackson -33
LaDainian Tomlinson - 20
Chris Johnson - 11
Steve Slaton - 10
DeAngelo Williams - 7
Pierre Thomas - 4
Frank Gore - 4
Thomas Jones - 2
Brandon Jacobs - 2
Brian Westbrook - 2
Larry Johnson - 1
Derrick Ward - 1
Clinton Portis - 1

It looks more and more like Maurice Jones-Drew is growing into the consensus #2 back in the land. Thanks to all the posters for participating in this poll

Fantasy Football Top Running Backs

Running backs are usually the lifeblood of any fantasy football team, but this year looks to be a bit different. The number of platoon backfields is increasing, and workhorse backs are harder to find. With the importance of landing a stud at this position, our rankings tend to lean towards the veterans.

Top 10 Running Backs for 2009

1. Adrian Peterson - Minnesota Vikings

I've been unsuccessfully searching for reasons why I should NOT put A.P. here at number 1. Running behind a great offensive line, Peterson has rushed for the third most yards all time in a player's first two seasons, only behind Eric Dickerson and Jim Brown. He is a workhorse, but doesn't get a ton of looks in the passing game (only 21 receptions last year).

2. LaDainian Tomlinson - San Diego Chargers

Most fantasy experts have L.T. slotted below this spot, but here's a nod for the steady veteran. Tomlinson has only missed 1 game in his 8 year career, while amassing more than 1,100 yards in every season. 2008 did mark a decline in his numbers though. He rushed for a career low 1,110 yards, hauled in his second fewest receptions at 52, and failed to complete a pass for the first time since 2002. Despite the decline, and the dreaded 30th birthday in June, L.T. is still such a steady pick in the midst of a bunch of question marks in the first round.

3. Matt Forte - Chicago Bears

It was so hard to put a 2nd year player into the third spot here, but after last season, we think it's justified. Forte is one of the few remaining workhorse backs, and with the addition of Jay Cutler, defenses will have a little more to worry about.

4. Michael Turner - Atlanta Falcons

Turner could end up at the top of this list by January. Problem is, he disappeared from the stat sheet during several games against tough rushing defenses. This problem escalates considering the 2009 schedule, which is the toughest run-defense schedule in the league. However, Turner will receive a little boost in blocking and the ability to distract covering linebackers with the addition of Tony Gonzalez.

5. Maurice Jones-Drew - Jacksonville Jaguars

Every year, I want to tell everyone that this guy's frame just can't hold up in the NFL. I still believe this, but stats have proved me wrong so far. MJD has missed less than 2 games to injury in his first three seasons. What's more to like is that Fred Taylor has moved on, leaving more action for Pocket Hercules. He is also a major weapon in the passing game, pulling in 62 receptions in 2008.

6. Steven Jackson - St. Louis Rams

Jackson's stock has been on the decline since his amazing peak season of 2006. Injuries have held him back a bit the last two seasons. However, with St. Louis planning to employ a run-heavy west coast offense similar to the Eagles, Jackson will be a workhorse with the chance to be the class of the league.

7. Clinton Portis - Washington Redskins

If you only count the first half of last year, Portis would probably replace A.P. as the #1 back. The NFL, however, plays a 16 game season in which Portis stumbled through the final 8 games, topping the 80-yard mark only one time. Ladell Betts is sneaking up and stealing more and more carries, but Portis remains a workhorse for the Redskins as he has totalled more than 1200 yards rushing and 320 carries the last two seasons while playing all 32 games.

8. Thomas Jones - New York Jets

The departure of Brett Favre could mean a stacked defensive front against Jones, but with rookie Mark Sanchez taking over, it also means the Jets will have to lean on their running game more. Jones was in the media for negative comments towards Favre and the Jets and missing most of the team's voluntary workouts, but lately has said, "I'm happy. I'm here for camp. I'm excited for the season." The major concerns lie with the emerging Leon Washington, and the traded-up-for Shonn Greene in the third round of the NFL draft.

9. Brian Westbrook - Philadelphia Eagles

If this guy could just stay healthy, he'd be a sure-fire top 3 pick every year. After two offseason surgeries and the drafting of LeSean McCoy in the 2nd round, Westbrook's stock has dropped off a bit. He is still a game-changer when he's on the field. If he stays healthy, he could very well be the juice that puts a fantasy team into the championship. The latest reports are good too: Eagles coach Andy Reid says that Westbrook is cutting and running at full speed.

10. Steve Slaton - Houston Texans

Slaton started 2008 totally under the radar as Houston's third choice at running back. His durability has been questioned, but after 268 carries last year, he quieted those sentiments a little bit. On an improving (possibly soon-to-be powerhouse) offense, Slaton looks to repeat the success he found in his rookie season. Only this year, the pressure is on.

Just missed the Top 10:

• Chris Johnson - Explosive, high ceiling, but shares the backfield.
• Frank Gore - Workhorse you may be able to steal in 2nd round
• DeAngelo Williams - Healthy Stewart + tougher schedule = won't repeat 2008 performance
• Marion Barber - Hasn't proven he can take entire load, but will be leaned on more with T.O. gone
• Larry Johnson - Diving over line early in August is a good sign that LJ is back.
  

Fan's Decision - Top Fantasy Quarterbacks

Today I conducted a fan poll on a message board. I asked for top 5 quarterbacks, and got a good response. Here is what the fans thought today:

Player - Points (5pts for 1st place votes, 4pts for 2nd, ....... 1 pt for 5th)


Drew Brees: 72
Tom Brady: 63
Peyton Manning: 49
Philip Rivers: 21
Aaron Rodgers : 17
Kurt Warner: 10
Tony Romo : 3
Carson Palmer : 3
Matt Ryan: 1
Donovan McNabb: 1

Fantasy Football Top Quarterbacks

Fantasy Football Hero brings you the first installment of the top fantasy players series. The pilots of the offense are the first to be ranked for many reasons unnecessary to discuss here.

Top 10 Quarterbacks for 2009

1. Tom Brady - New England Patriots

Too bold to give him the top spot after missing 2008? Ask Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, and Philip Rivers who all rebounded strongly after having the same ACL surgery. His 2007 performance just forces his position here. Adding Joey Galloway to the receiver core can only help.

2. Drew Brees - New Orleans Saints

Even though he topped the league last year in fantasy points, Brees was actually pretty inconsistant. In eight road games, he threw only 11 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. Having him on your roster can almost be a liability when he's away from the Dome.

3. Peyton Manning - Indianapolis Colts

The commercial superstar could very well end up in the top spot at the end of the season. However, with age catching up and changes to the offense, there could be a dropoff in Peyton's numbers this season. Realistically, I think he'll be a top 5 fantasy QB until the day he retires.

4. Philip Rivers - San Diego Chargers

This is one guy to watch out for. Leading the league in QB rating, 2008 was the best season in his career. There's no reason to think Rivers isn't on the rise. For three years now, he hasn't missed a game.

5. Donovan McNabb - Philadelphia Eagles

McNabb is pretty solid, if not spectacular, when he's on the field. The problem lies with his injuries. Only four times in his 10-year career has he played all 16 games. The biggest worry though sits in the last five years as McNabb has only completed a full season once. If he does repeat last year's health, Donovan should be in for a big year. The offensive line was improved and a couple of new weapons were drafted in Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy.

6. Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers

Rodgers is a quarterback with an uncalculated ceiling. He could be set up for a letdown year after he burst onto the scene in 2008, especially playing behind a suspect offensive line. However, with the emerging Greg Jennings, still reliable Donald Driver, and solid Ryan Grant; Rodgers has the weapons needed to bring the playoffs back to the Tundra.

7. Matt Ryan - Atlanta Falcons

A second year player surely carries a risk. Or does he? How can you factor in how big a role Tony Gonzalez will play in the Falcons offense. Just ask Trent Green and Tyler Thigpen, two guys who put up great numbers just because of the greatest tight end of all time, Gonzalez. What can Matt Ryan do with this amazing addition to Roddy White and Michael Turner? The sky is the limit.

8. Matt Schaub - Houston Texans

As long as he stays on the field, this should be Schaub's year to breakout. Armed with a strong arsenal constisting of Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Owen Daniels and Steve Slaton, Schaub has the weapons to lead this time into the playoffs. If you miss out on some of the studs, this is a good sleeper pick that could surprise.

9. Matt Hasselbeck - Seattle Seahawks

Hasselbeck threw more than 20 touchdown passes four out of five years before his injury last season. The only year he missed the mark in that stretch was in 2006 when he only played 12 games. There are worries that he could be on the down slope of his career, but I think the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh is just what Matt and the Seahawks needed.

10. Tony Romo - Dallas Cowboys

This could be a surprise, but the only reason Romo was a top pick last year was because of his 2007 breakout 36 touchdown season. OK, he was decent last season, but losing Terrell Owens is not going to help his cause.

Just missed the Top 10:

• Kurt Warner - Missed games every year from 2002-2007. We think he'll find his way back onto the bench.
• Jay Cutler - Just isn't in a favorable quarterback situation in Chicago.
• Ben Roethlisberger - Solid QB, but we expect a Super Bowl dropoff.
• Carson Palmer - Could be top 10 or bottom 10. He needs to reprove himself.
  
• Trent Edwards - T.O. makes him a sleeper at this spot.
  

Bloggers Fantasy Football League

Calling all fantasy football bloggers!

Think you have what it takes to compete in a league against bloggers from the same field? Bring it on. We're starting the FBL (Fantasy Bloggers League) this year and are searching for a few more team owners. The league will be free and played on a site determined by league votes (Yahoo, ESPN, other). The main incentives are fun and competition, but it will also surely be a fun source for blog content.

If you're interested, leave a comment here, or send me an email at derek@millercards.net.

Fantasy Football Tip: Don't Draft a Kicker

Blame Rob Bironas. Him and his seven damn field goals made everyone just a little more stupid last year, as it seemed to make fantasy owners reach just a little bit higher for kickers.

These wanna-be soccer players shouldn't even be drafted. Excuse my disliking for the sport of soccer and people who kick things just for a minute and let me explain.

Bironas lived up to his legend - somewhat. Besides the Titans' kicker, who ranked 4th in fantasy points for kickers (15 points off of the leader), the following kickers were reached for as early as the 9th round in some drafts. Their names are followed by the overall place in kickers' fantasy points, with the distance from the leader following that:

• Stephen Goskowski --- 1st --- (159 points)
• Rob Bironas --- 4th --- ( -15 points behind leader)
• Nate Kaeding --- 13th --- (-27 points)
• Neil Rackers --- 16th --- (-32 points)
• Nick Folk --- 20th --- (-43 points)
• Adam Vinatieri --- 24th --- (-48 points)
• Shayne Graham --- 28th --- (-72 points)

Poor Bengals.

So the facts show that if you did draft Gostkowski or Bironas, it may have payed off a little. However, on average, if you drafted a kicker before the last round, you probably deserved a failing grade in that round of the draft.

My questions to you are now:

1) Why reach for a kicker when no one seems to have any idea who the top 10 kickers are?

2) Why even draft a kicker when you can get a real player who may just make an impact on preseason games and increase his value?

Still not convinced? Take a look at this handful of players that were drafted after the first kicker was taken in one of my leagues last year: Ronnie Brown, LenDale White, Donald Driver, Matt Forte, Santana Moss, Jay Cutler, and Bernard Berrian. Who wouldn't like any of these players on their bench or even in their starting lineup?

My advice to fantasy players would be to either wait until the last round to draft a kicker, or to wait until the week of the first game to pick up a kicker in free agency. Ideally one would probably be best just picking up different kickers with good matchups every week.

Debating the theory: Draft Running Backs First

Two years ago, running backs were the aces of fantasy football. With a draft board full of ball hogs such as LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Steven Jackson, everyone knew the smart thing to do in the first round was to take a stud running back.

Last year more people began breaking the rule and going wide receiver or quarterback in the first round, searching for the next or drafting the actual Tom Brady. Well, with the infamous injury, the new era of drafting sizzled out a bit, losing some of it's momentum going into 2009.

It seems like there is a bit of confusion this year. Is Adrian Peterson a sure thing? He didn't even lead the league in fantasy points last year, some guy named DeAngelo Williams (yeah I know who he is, I drafted him and then traded him away during his hype thinking that's all it was - and I still think that's all it is) topped the league in scoring for running backs. Number 2? A rookie! Matt Forte was second in scoring. Note - please disregard the last blog entry saying not to draft rookies in Draft Tip #4. Some idiot wrote that. So going back to the original point of this paragraph, the days of good old, never-doubted, #1-pick-is-LT are gone.

There is something shifting the land of the NFL. Mike Shanahanism. The man that would send out literal armies to man the running back position made it really tough to be a fantasy owner. There are teams with dual threats, tri threats, quad threats (freakin Patriots), and threats to be named later. The aforementioned Adrian Peterson? Still dealing with that pesky Chester Taylor stealing carries. To finish out this new point, just look at the third highest scoring running back of 2008: Maurice Jones Drew. Not even 1000 yards rushing (824), but had 14 total touchdowns and pulled in 565 receiving yards. And he only started 3 GAMES!

So something is going on out there in fantasy land, and we're going to dive into numbers a bit more here and see if we can figure it out together. Note that I haven't taken a real position on this debate yet because I'm still crunching all these numbers. Considering that Drew Brees outscored everyone and Andre Johnson scored over a dozen points more than leading RB DeAngelo Williams, let's look at the following possible first six rounds.

Each of these half-mock drafts are selected players that would likely be available from a 5th or 6th draft position in a 10-team league with 1 QB, 2 RBs, and 3 WRs starting:

Rd	Pos	Player	Pts*		Pos	Player	Pts*		Pos	Player	Pts*
1	RB	Tomlinson	275		QB	Brady	423		WR	Fitzgerald	320
2	RB	Gore	240		WR	Cal. Johnson	265		RB	Gore	240
3	WR	S. Smith	250		WR	S. Smith	250		QB	P. Manning	380
4	WR	Housh	230		WR	Housh	230		WR	Housh	230
5	QB	Warner	360		RB	McFadden	185		RB	McFadden	185
6	WR	B. Edwards	218		RB	Bush	180		WR	B. Edwards	218
Points: 1573					Points: 1533				Points: 1573

Rd	Pos	Player	Pts*		Pos	Player	Pts*		Pos	Player	Pts
1	WR	Fitzgerald	320		RB	Tomlinson	275		WR	Fitzgerald	320
2	WR	Cal. Johnson	265		QB	Brees	388		RB	Gore	240
3	WR	S. Smith	250		WR	S. Smith	250		WR	S. Smith	250
4	QB	A. Rodgers	375		WR	Housh	230		RB	R. Grant	210
5	RB	McFadden	185		WR	A. Gonzalez	225		WR	A. Gonzalez	225
6	RB	Bush	180		RB	Bush	180		QB	Romo	330
	Points: 1575				Points: 1548				Points: 1575

* - Point totals are based on 2008 fantasy points in particular players' slot

Sorting through these numbers, we see that 1) There isn't much difference between any way you might draft, and 2) The old theory of going running back - running back in the draft is still justified.

But we do learn now that it isn't all so neccesary to draft two running backs first. So let's look at a few more stats here to try to figure out what to do with this 2009 draft.

Pos	Avg Pts - Starters	Avg Pts - Bench	Difference
QB	350	250	100
RB	280	180	100
WR	275	175	100

In this table, the first stat column is the average of the top 10 WRs, RBs, and QBs. The 2nd stat column (Bench players) considers the average of the 11-15th ranked QBs, the 21-30th ranked RBs and the 31-40th ranked WRs. The stat proves itself somewhat useless considering that the same difference in point total exists from studs to bench players at all three major positions.

Well, in a way, we have proved a point with all of this somewhat nonsense. There aren't many reasons to stick with the old ways of grabbing the running backs early. In fact, we have pretty much proven that one can draft whichever way he likes (without dipping into the tight end, kicker, or defense pool too early) and not see a big difference in point totals.

After all of these numbers, my advice for 2009: Draft with your gut instinct.

And if you don't have a gut instinct, you'd better stick around and keep reading these blog posts.

Joining A Fantasy Football League

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Guide!

Readers can find tips, strategies, breakdowns, reviews, and other great info pertaining to Fantasy Football. For the new FFers out there, fantasy football is an on-paper game that has been around since the 1960s. A group of people (around 10 on average) form a league with each person taking the role of a "team owner". Each league has it's different settings and types of scoring, but all leagues are decided by compiling points based on how certain players and teams fared statistically in the real NFL.

The two major types of scoring are rotisserie and head-to-head. In a Rotisserie league, the standings basically reflect who has the most points. In head-to-head leagues, owners are matched up against each other from week to week in the season. Each owner plays out a schedule against all or most of the other teams in the league. Whichever team scores the most in a given week, wins that contest. The H2H (head to head) leagues' season usually ends around week 13 or 14, allowing for the final few weeks of the NFL regular season to be used for the playoffs.

Fantasy Football can be played with friends, co-workers, family, or strangers. There are many sites out there that offer free fantasy leagues for people to join, or even to create their own league for others to join. Two main free fantasy football sites are ESPN and Yahoo. I've used both of these and recommend either.

In subsequent entries, I'll be explaining the process of playing a fantasy football league season.

Joining A League

As stated previously, there are many free sites for joining a fantasy league. For the beginner, the best advice would be to join a free public league. This will place you in a league with 9-11 other strangers. When joining a league, you'll be able to choose options such as team name, draft type, draft time, roster type, and others.

Team names are taken seriously among some fantasy players. Some leagues have strict rules on what your team name can be, and some leagues have no rules on team name. A team name can be anything (within rules if any) the owner wants it to be. A lot of fantasy players go for humor, and many owners keep the same name from year to year. Some examples of team names are: Mississippi Mud, John's Jocks, Butterfly Catchers, Pooprod Fartroids, etc.

A fantasy league roster consists of any of the positions in the NFL. Each owner sets their roster each week, putting in the players they think will perform the best. Each team has a starting roster (players that will earn points that count towards the standings) and a bench (players on the bench are to be used as substitutes on bye weeks or when other players are injured or underperforming). Most leagues have some or all of the following roster spots:

• Quarterbacks (usually 1 starter per team)
• Running Backs (usually 2 starters)
• Wide Receivers (usually 2-3 starters)
• Slash Positions (WR/RB or WR/TE) these positions can be filled by any position associated with the spot
• Tight Ends (usually 1 starter)
• Kicker (usually 1 starter)
• Defensive Teams (usually 1 starter - this spot consists of the entire team's defense with points accrued by allowing few points, sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries, defensive touchdowns, etc.)
• Defensive Starters (most leagues don't use individual defensive players)

For draft types, the following options may be available. Explanations for each follow the type:

• Live Online Draft - The draft is held at a scheduled time in a specific place on the internet. When joining, you should be given a link to the exact place to go. Some sites will let you test your system to see if it can support the live draft, and you should do this. During a live draft, each owner drafts a player according to their draft order. Similar to the NFL draft, each team gets an allotted amount of time (usually around 90 seconds) to make their selection. After each round, the draft order USUALLY reverses, giving the first pick of the draft overall the last pick in the 2nd round for fairness. This style of draft is commonly known as a "Serpentine" draft. The draft continues with or without all the participants until all roster positions have been filled. Live drafts are fun, and I recommend that anybody try it at least once.
• Offline Drafts - These drafts are entered in manually be the commissioner of the league. Make sure you understand what you're getting into before you join a league with this draft setting. There are many ways this draft can be conducted. Message board drafts are done through the message board of the league or a specified forum elsewhere. Each player posts which player they wants when it's their turn. Another option for this type of draft is meeting together with a group of people in person. The draft would then be conducted in real time with the results being entered into the league during or after the draft. There are also Free Agency drafts that are somewhat silly. At a certain time, all players are made available to the entire league. When the time comes, all mayhem lets loose and everyone can start picking up the players they want. The person with the fastest internet connection, mouse fingers, and strategy will put together the best team. There are some other options for this kind of draft, but I won't go into any more detail here. Do feel free to ask about them if you have any questions.
• Auto-Pick Draft - These drafts are truly for beginners. The site hosting the league usually puts together a list of best to worst fantasy football players. Each owner can manually change their list to reflect their opinion. When the league is set to draft, a computer selects each players team by going through each owner's player list.
• Auction Draft - These drafts are for the more advanced fantasy player. Each owner is given the same amount of fake (usually) money to bid on players. When the draft begins, NFL players are nominated for bidding automatically or by owners. All owners can bid on the current player being auctioned, with the high bidder getting the player on their roster. Money management and strategy play key roles here as you must have enough money to go around for all the desired positions. The more money you spend on a player, the less you'll have to fill other roster spots.

There are definately other ways to draft a fantasy team, but the above are the most common.

This all may have been redundant to those veteran fantasy football players out there, but I hope it helps out some rookies in getting started. For all of the bored readers out there, be patient, the fun will come.

Next Topic: Draft Strategies!