Fantasy Football: Is Adrian Peterson Really #1?

LaDainian Tomlinson eased every fantasy player's heart. You got the sure thing, you didn't have to think, and it always paid off. LT was worthy of the respect he gained during his amazing run as the undisputed first pick in fantasy football. He graced fantasy magazine covers to the point that the publishers had to search for other players to enshrine out of boredom of the obvious.

That boredom is no more. The public though, wants a sure-fire can't-miss first-pick-over-all stud running back. Quarterbacks and Wide Recievers cannot be drafted number 1. In fact, there's a bit of an unwritten rule that non-running-backs can't be drafted in the first 6 picks. Tom Brady tried to break that rule last year, and look what happened. Bernard Pollard doesn't seem to like quarterbacks drafted in the first round of fantasy football.

So now the search has rested on Adrian Peterson. No one is questioning it, he's the new LT. It almost seems like the public was so desperate to find a new LT that they settled on the first one who came along. No doubt, Peterson had an amazing rookie season. He had a pretty stellar second season too. Problem is, he got hurt, and he was not the top scoring RB. Tomlinson has missed 1 game in his entire career. LT also scored 2 more total touchdowns than AP last year.

Now this is not an argument to put LT over AP or really, anyone over AP. What I'm trying to say here is to have an open mind. Go ahead and pick Peterson with the first pick this year, but make sure to re-analyze the position before next years draft. If he fails to top the league in RB scoring again, then he is still not on LT status yet.

Or just maybe, if you want to buck the trent and open your mind and take a large gamble, pick Tom Brady #1.

(disclaimer: I am not a Tom Brady or New England Patriots fan. I just have a feeling that we're going to see a little bit of 2007 all over again)

Fantasy Football Top Quarterbacks

Fantasy Football Hero brings you the first installment of the top fantasy players series. The pilots of the offense are the first to be ranked for many reasons unnecessary to discuss here.

Top 10 Quarterbacks for 2009

1. Tom Brady - New England Patriots

Too bold to give him the top spot after missing 2008? Ask Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, and Philip Rivers who all rebounded strongly after having the same ACL surgery. His 2007 performance just forces his position here. Adding Joey Galloway to the receiver core can only help.

2. Drew Brees - New Orleans Saints

Even though he topped the league last year in fantasy points, Brees was actually pretty inconsistant. In eight road games, he threw only 11 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. Having him on your roster can almost be a liability when he's away from the Dome.

3. Peyton Manning - Indianapolis Colts

The commercial superstar could very well end up in the top spot at the end of the season. However, with age catching up and changes to the offense, there could be a dropoff in Peyton's numbers this season. Realistically, I think he'll be a top 5 fantasy QB until the day he retires.

4. Philip Rivers - San Diego Chargers

This is one guy to watch out for. Leading the league in QB rating, 2008 was the best season in his career. There's no reason to think Rivers isn't on the rise. For three years now, he hasn't missed a game.

5. Donovan McNabb - Philadelphia Eagles

McNabb is pretty solid, if not spectacular, when he's on the field. The problem lies with his injuries. Only four times in his 10-year career has he played all 16 games. The biggest worry though sits in the last five years as McNabb has only completed a full season once. If he does repeat last year's health, Donovan should be in for a big year. The offensive line was improved and a couple of new weapons were drafted in Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy.

6. Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers

Rodgers is a quarterback with an uncalculated ceiling. He could be set up for a letdown year after he burst onto the scene in 2008, especially playing behind a suspect offensive line. However, with the emerging Greg Jennings, still reliable Donald Driver, and solid Ryan Grant; Rodgers has the weapons needed to bring the playoffs back to the Tundra.

7. Matt Ryan - Atlanta Falcons

A second year player surely carries a risk. Or does he? How can you factor in how big a role Tony Gonzalez will play in the Falcons offense. Just ask Trent Green and Tyler Thigpen, two guys who put up great numbers just because of the greatest tight end of all time, Gonzalez. What can Matt Ryan do with this amazing addition to Roddy White and Michael Turner? The sky is the limit.

8. Matt Schaub - Houston Texans

As long as he stays on the field, this should be Schaub's year to breakout. Armed with a strong arsenal constisting of Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Owen Daniels and Steve Slaton, Schaub has the weapons to lead this time into the playoffs. If you miss out on some of the studs, this is a good sleeper pick that could surprise.

9. Matt Hasselbeck - Seattle Seahawks

Hasselbeck threw more than 20 touchdown passes four out of five years before his injury last season. The only year he missed the mark in that stretch was in 2006 when he only played 12 games. There are worries that he could be on the down slope of his career, but I think the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh is just what Matt and the Seahawks needed.

10. Tony Romo - Dallas Cowboys

This could be a surprise, but the only reason Romo was a top pick last year was because of his 2007 breakout 36 touchdown season. OK, he was decent last season, but losing Terrell Owens is not going to help his cause.

Just missed the Top 10:

• Kurt Warner - Missed games every year from 2002-2007. We think he'll find his way back onto the bench.
• Jay Cutler - Just isn't in a favorable quarterback situation in Chicago.
• Ben Roethlisberger - Solid QB, but we expect a Super Bowl dropoff.
• Carson Palmer - Could be top 10 or bottom 10. He needs to reprove himself.
  
• Trent Edwards - T.O. makes him a sleeper at this spot.
  

Fantasy Football Leagues With Two Quarterbacks

No one really knows enough in the preseason. It's also probably one of fantasy football's alluring factors, being that it's such a game of luck. That's how the World Series of Poker (WSOP) caught on. For any of you that have ever heard of Chris Moneymaker, you know what I'm talking about.

So you can't really win $millions in fantasy football, but it does usually involve a lot of luck with a pinch of skill. For that same reason, you'll hear different opinions all across the fantasy world. One guy likes Matt Ryan, here's another who thinks it's Jay Cutler's year. Oh wait, this girl over here thinks Cutler won't be a fantasy hit because of Chicago's play style. Oh, what's that? Matt Stafford's the next Matt Ryan who is actually the next Matt Damon. Wait, what?

Exactly. I'm still waiting on Rounders 2, Mr. Ryan.

There is a solution to this problem. Allow a bit of determination, research and skill decide the fantasy football championship. Have the league Start TWO Quarterbacks! This way, Matt Schaub is actually worthwhile to have on a team. Matt Hasselbeck? Sure, at least as a backup somewhere. This style of play is catching on, and it gives a home to guys like Matt Leinart. Well maybe not until Kurt Warner's holy arm wears out.

Starting two signal-callers balances out the roster so that 1 or 2 players don't carry a team week in and week out. Ideally the league would also add a slash position or extra player elsewhere to even out the impact that both quarterbacks will make. Having this sort of roster setup tones down the gambling part of the game. Those rookies aren't going to be able to come in, make a couple of lucky picks, and dance their way to the title. This is how veteran leagues should be set up.

Think of the possible draft strategies. With the instant leap of quarterback importance, do you go QB-QB first two rounds? How would you like to have Tom Brady and Drew Brees leading your team this year? While that guy is taking the QBs, another could pop off and grab the great RBs, while yet another is stuffing his team with four solid wide receivers. This method of play seriously takes the game to a new exciting level.

Just to warn any of you about-to-be commissioners looking for a way to spice up your league. I would advise you to put some restrictions on number of quarterbacks on roster. Allow teams to have quarterbacks from only 3 different teams, with a stipulation allowing more if there is an injury or multiple bye weeks. A 2 QB per roster rule would probably have to be instated with 12-team+ leagues. It takes some thinking, but hey, email me if you need help figuring it out. I've been on the rules committee for a 2-QB league for a few years now, involving 10 and 12 team leagues.

So, in summary, do you guys think I should change my kid's name to Matt and start building up his throwing arm?

Bloggers Fantasy Football League

Calling all fantasy football bloggers!

Think you have what it takes to compete in a league against bloggers from the same field? Bring it on. We're starting the FBL (Fantasy Bloggers League) this year and are searching for a few more team owners. The league will be free and played on a site determined by league votes (Yahoo, ESPN, other). The main incentives are fun and competition, but it will also surely be a fun source for blog content.

If you're interested, leave a comment here, or send me an email at derek@millercards.net.

Fantasy Football Tip: Don't Draft a Kicker

Blame Rob Bironas. Him and his seven damn field goals made everyone just a little more stupid last year, as it seemed to make fantasy owners reach just a little bit higher for kickers.

These wanna-be soccer players shouldn't even be drafted. Excuse my disliking for the sport of soccer and people who kick things just for a minute and let me explain.

Bironas lived up to his legend - somewhat. Besides the Titans' kicker, who ranked 4th in fantasy points for kickers (15 points off of the leader), the following kickers were reached for as early as the 9th round in some drafts. Their names are followed by the overall place in kickers' fantasy points, with the distance from the leader following that:

• Stephen Goskowski --- 1st --- (159 points)
• Rob Bironas --- 4th --- ( -15 points behind leader)
• Nate Kaeding --- 13th --- (-27 points)
• Neil Rackers --- 16th --- (-32 points)
• Nick Folk --- 20th --- (-43 points)
• Adam Vinatieri --- 24th --- (-48 points)
• Shayne Graham --- 28th --- (-72 points)

Poor Bengals.

So the facts show that if you did draft Gostkowski or Bironas, it may have payed off a little. However, on average, if you drafted a kicker before the last round, you probably deserved a failing grade in that round of the draft.

My questions to you are now:

1) Why reach for a kicker when no one seems to have any idea who the top 10 kickers are?

2) Why even draft a kicker when you can get a real player who may just make an impact on preseason games and increase his value?

Still not convinced? Take a look at this handful of players that were drafted after the first kicker was taken in one of my leagues last year: Ronnie Brown, LenDale White, Donald Driver, Matt Forte, Santana Moss, Jay Cutler, and Bernard Berrian. Who wouldn't like any of these players on their bench or even in their starting lineup?

My advice to fantasy players would be to either wait until the last round to draft a kicker, or to wait until the week of the first game to pick up a kicker in free agency. Ideally one would probably be best just picking up different kickers with good matchups every week.

Debating the theory: Draft Running Backs First

Two years ago, running backs were the aces of fantasy football. With a draft board full of ball hogs such as LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Steven Jackson, everyone knew the smart thing to do in the first round was to take a stud running back.

Last year more people began breaking the rule and going wide receiver or quarterback in the first round, searching for the next or drafting the actual Tom Brady. Well, with the infamous injury, the new era of drafting sizzled out a bit, losing some of it's momentum going into 2009.

It seems like there is a bit of confusion this year. Is Adrian Peterson a sure thing? He didn't even lead the league in fantasy points last year, some guy named DeAngelo Williams (yeah I know who he is, I drafted him and then traded him away during his hype thinking that's all it was - and I still think that's all it is) topped the league in scoring for running backs. Number 2? A rookie! Matt Forte was second in scoring. Note - please disregard the last blog entry saying not to draft rookies in Draft Tip #4. Some idiot wrote that. So going back to the original point of this paragraph, the days of good old, never-doubted, #1-pick-is-LT are gone.

There is something shifting the land of the NFL. Mike Shanahanism. The man that would send out literal armies to man the running back position made it really tough to be a fantasy owner. There are teams with dual threats, tri threats, quad threats (freakin Patriots), and threats to be named later. The aforementioned Adrian Peterson? Still dealing with that pesky Chester Taylor stealing carries. To finish out this new point, just look at the third highest scoring running back of 2008: Maurice Jones Drew. Not even 1000 yards rushing (824), but had 14 total touchdowns and pulled in 565 receiving yards. And he only started 3 GAMES!

So something is going on out there in fantasy land, and we're going to dive into numbers a bit more here and see if we can figure it out together. Note that I haven't taken a real position on this debate yet because I'm still crunching all these numbers. Considering that Drew Brees outscored everyone and Andre Johnson scored over a dozen points more than leading RB DeAngelo Williams, let's look at the following possible first six rounds.

Each of these half-mock drafts are selected players that would likely be available from a 5th or 6th draft position in a 10-team league with 1 QB, 2 RBs, and 3 WRs starting:

Rd	Pos	Player	Pts*		Pos	Player	Pts*		Pos	Player	Pts*
1	RB	Tomlinson	275		QB	Brady	423		WR	Fitzgerald	320
2	RB	Gore	240		WR	Cal. Johnson	265		RB	Gore	240
3	WR	S. Smith	250		WR	S. Smith	250		QB	P. Manning	380
4	WR	Housh	230		WR	Housh	230		WR	Housh	230
5	QB	Warner	360		RB	McFadden	185		RB	McFadden	185
6	WR	B. Edwards	218		RB	Bush	180		WR	B. Edwards	218
Points: 1573					Points: 1533				Points: 1573

Rd	Pos	Player	Pts*		Pos	Player	Pts*		Pos	Player	Pts
1	WR	Fitzgerald	320		RB	Tomlinson	275		WR	Fitzgerald	320
2	WR	Cal. Johnson	265		QB	Brees	388		RB	Gore	240
3	WR	S. Smith	250		WR	S. Smith	250		WR	S. Smith	250
4	QB	A. Rodgers	375		WR	Housh	230		RB	R. Grant	210
5	RB	McFadden	185		WR	A. Gonzalez	225		WR	A. Gonzalez	225
6	RB	Bush	180		RB	Bush	180		QB	Romo	330
	Points: 1575				Points: 1548				Points: 1575

* - Point totals are based on 2008 fantasy points in particular players' slot

Sorting through these numbers, we see that 1) There isn't much difference between any way you might draft, and 2) The old theory of going running back - running back in the draft is still justified.

But we do learn now that it isn't all so neccesary to draft two running backs first. So let's look at a few more stats here to try to figure out what to do with this 2009 draft.

Pos	Avg Pts - Starters	Avg Pts - Bench	Difference
QB	350	250	100
RB	280	180	100
WR	275	175	100

In this table, the first stat column is the average of the top 10 WRs, RBs, and QBs. The 2nd stat column (Bench players) considers the average of the 11-15th ranked QBs, the 21-30th ranked RBs and the 31-40th ranked WRs. The stat proves itself somewhat useless considering that the same difference in point total exists from studs to bench players at all three major positions.

Well, in a way, we have proved a point with all of this somewhat nonsense. There aren't many reasons to stick with the old ways of grabbing the running backs early. In fact, we have pretty much proven that one can draft whichever way he likes (without dipping into the tight end, kicker, or defense pool too early) and not see a big difference in point totals.

After all of these numbers, my advice for 2009: Draft with your gut instinct.

And if you don't have a gut instinct, you'd better stick around and keep reading these blog posts.