Fantasy Football: Is Adrian Peterson Really #1?

LaDainian Tomlinson eased every fantasy player's heart. You got the sure thing, you didn't have to think, and it always paid off. LT was worthy of the respect he gained during his amazing run as the undisputed first pick in fantasy football. He graced fantasy magazine covers to the point that the publishers had to search for other players to enshrine out of boredom of the obvious.

That boredom is no more. The public though, wants a sure-fire can't-miss first-pick-over-all stud running back. Quarterbacks and Wide Recievers cannot be drafted number 1. In fact, there's a bit of an unwritten rule that non-running-backs can't be drafted in the first 6 picks. Tom Brady tried to break that rule last year, and look what happened. Bernard Pollard doesn't seem to like quarterbacks drafted in the first round of fantasy football.

So now the search has rested on Adrian Peterson. No one is questioning it, he's the new LT. It almost seems like the public was so desperate to find a new LT that they settled on the first one who came along. No doubt, Peterson had an amazing rookie season. He had a pretty stellar second season too. Problem is, he got hurt, and he was not the top scoring RB. Tomlinson has missed 1 game in his entire career. LT also scored 2 more total touchdowns than AP last year.

Now this is not an argument to put LT over AP or really, anyone over AP. What I'm trying to say here is to have an open mind. Go ahead and pick Peterson with the first pick this year, but make sure to re-analyze the position before next years draft. If he fails to top the league in RB scoring again, then he is still not on LT status yet.

Or just maybe, if you want to buck the trent and open your mind and take a large gamble, pick Tom Brady #1.

(disclaimer: I am not a Tom Brady or New England Patriots fan. I just have a feeling that we're going to see a little bit of 2007 all over again)

Fan's Decision - Top Fantasy Running Backs

Today's Fan Decision Poll was for Running Backs. Adrian Peterson was probably #1 on 90 percent of the votes and listed on 100% of the top 5 lists. I asked a couple of message boards who their top 5 running backs were.

For 1st place votes, 5 points were awarded, 2nd place - 4 points, 3rd place - 3 points, 4nd place - 2 points, 5th place - 1 point.

Adrian Peterson - 173
Maurice Jones-Drew - 112
Matt Forte - 91
Michael Turner - 81
Steven Jackson -33
LaDainian Tomlinson - 20
Chris Johnson - 11
Steve Slaton - 10
DeAngelo Williams - 7
Pierre Thomas - 4
Frank Gore - 4
Thomas Jones - 2
Brandon Jacobs - 2
Brian Westbrook - 2
Larry Johnson - 1
Derrick Ward - 1
Clinton Portis - 1

It looks more and more like Maurice Jones-Drew is growing into the consensus #2 back in the land. Thanks to all the posters for participating in this poll

Fantasy Football Top Running Backs

Running backs are usually the lifeblood of any fantasy football team, but this year looks to be a bit different. The number of platoon backfields is increasing, and workhorse backs are harder to find. With the importance of landing a stud at this position, our rankings tend to lean towards the veterans.

Top 10 Running Backs for 2009

1. Adrian Peterson - Minnesota Vikings

I've been unsuccessfully searching for reasons why I should NOT put A.P. here at number 1. Running behind a great offensive line, Peterson has rushed for the third most yards all time in a player's first two seasons, only behind Eric Dickerson and Jim Brown. He is a workhorse, but doesn't get a ton of looks in the passing game (only 21 receptions last year).

2. LaDainian Tomlinson - San Diego Chargers

Most fantasy experts have L.T. slotted below this spot, but here's a nod for the steady veteran. Tomlinson has only missed 1 game in his 8 year career, while amassing more than 1,100 yards in every season. 2008 did mark a decline in his numbers though. He rushed for a career low 1,110 yards, hauled in his second fewest receptions at 52, and failed to complete a pass for the first time since 2002. Despite the decline, and the dreaded 30th birthday in June, L.T. is still such a steady pick in the midst of a bunch of question marks in the first round.

3. Matt Forte - Chicago Bears

It was so hard to put a 2nd year player into the third spot here, but after last season, we think it's justified. Forte is one of the few remaining workhorse backs, and with the addition of Jay Cutler, defenses will have a little more to worry about.

4. Michael Turner - Atlanta Falcons

Turner could end up at the top of this list by January. Problem is, he disappeared from the stat sheet during several games against tough rushing defenses. This problem escalates considering the 2009 schedule, which is the toughest run-defense schedule in the league. However, Turner will receive a little boost in blocking and the ability to distract covering linebackers with the addition of Tony Gonzalez.

5. Maurice Jones-Drew - Jacksonville Jaguars

Every year, I want to tell everyone that this guy's frame just can't hold up in the NFL. I still believe this, but stats have proved me wrong so far. MJD has missed less than 2 games to injury in his first three seasons. What's more to like is that Fred Taylor has moved on, leaving more action for Pocket Hercules. He is also a major weapon in the passing game, pulling in 62 receptions in 2008.

6. Steven Jackson - St. Louis Rams

Jackson's stock has been on the decline since his amazing peak season of 2006. Injuries have held him back a bit the last two seasons. However, with St. Louis planning to employ a run-heavy west coast offense similar to the Eagles, Jackson will be a workhorse with the chance to be the class of the league.

7. Clinton Portis - Washington Redskins

If you only count the first half of last year, Portis would probably replace A.P. as the #1 back. The NFL, however, plays a 16 game season in which Portis stumbled through the final 8 games, topping the 80-yard mark only one time. Ladell Betts is sneaking up and stealing more and more carries, but Portis remains a workhorse for the Redskins as he has totalled more than 1200 yards rushing and 320 carries the last two seasons while playing all 32 games.

8. Thomas Jones - New York Jets

The departure of Brett Favre could mean a stacked defensive front against Jones, but with rookie Mark Sanchez taking over, it also means the Jets will have to lean on their running game more. Jones was in the media for negative comments towards Favre and the Jets and missing most of the team's voluntary workouts, but lately has said, "I'm happy. I'm here for camp. I'm excited for the season." The major concerns lie with the emerging Leon Washington, and the traded-up-for Shonn Greene in the third round of the NFL draft.

9. Brian Westbrook - Philadelphia Eagles

If this guy could just stay healthy, he'd be a sure-fire top 3 pick every year. After two offseason surgeries and the drafting of LeSean McCoy in the 2nd round, Westbrook's stock has dropped off a bit. He is still a game-changer when he's on the field. If he stays healthy, he could very well be the juice that puts a fantasy team into the championship. The latest reports are good too: Eagles coach Andy Reid says that Westbrook is cutting and running at full speed.

10. Steve Slaton - Houston Texans

Slaton started 2008 totally under the radar as Houston's third choice at running back. His durability has been questioned, but after 268 carries last year, he quieted those sentiments a little bit. On an improving (possibly soon-to-be powerhouse) offense, Slaton looks to repeat the success he found in his rookie season. Only this year, the pressure is on.

Just missed the Top 10:

• Chris Johnson - Explosive, high ceiling, but shares the backfield.
• Frank Gore - Workhorse you may be able to steal in 2nd round
• DeAngelo Williams - Healthy Stewart + tougher schedule = won't repeat 2008 performance
• Marion Barber - Hasn't proven he can take entire load, but will be leaned on more with T.O. gone
• Larry Johnson - Diving over line early in August is a good sign that LJ is back.
  

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

So you're a loser, huh?

I don't mean to offend you, but if you're reading this, you must have lost last year or you wouldn't need a new strategy. Truth is though, a little outside help never hurts anyone in fantasy football. Actually, even some winners don't really have a good draft strategy. How many of you all played in a league two years back, and the guy with Tom Brady tore through the league, while thinking they were the best all time fantasy player, when in actuality, their team wasn't so great?

Yes, my buddy was one of those guys. He had no running backs, no receivers, but with Brady atop the lineup, everything went smooth for him. Well let me tell you something, Tom Brady doesn't come around that often. The year he had will probably not be duplicated in dozens of years. He's back? Oh no!

Well, with that, let me revise my strategy list real quick.....

OK, I'm back. The following draft strategies should benefit anyone and everyone. Enjoy!


Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 1 - Draft Tom Brady!

Maybe this one is a little tough to accomplish, but you may not want to let him slide past you in the first round. The Patriots were ridiculous in 2007. If Brady puts up just 80% of what he did that year, you'd be a fool to not want him as your quarterback.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 2 - Grab some running backs!
If you've been around fantasy football before, you know the drill. Running backs are the lifeblood of a fantasy team. This strategy may be slipping a little bit with all of the double (and even triple!) threat backfields, but if you can grab a stud (a RB who gets most of his team's carries), you'll be happy with the results. If you find yourself short on running backs after most of the big names have gone off the board, grab some BABUs (backups about to break out).

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 3 - Supply and Demand
With running backs being the exception, most positions in fantasy football are plentiful after the studs go off of the board. If you're looking at wide receivers past the top 20, look away! Average wide receivers are a dime a dozen. Unless there is a stud staring at you, there's not much difference between Jerricho Cotchery and Nate Burleson, and you should probably check the other positions. For quarterbacks and tight ends, there are only a few worth drafting in the early rounds. If you're staring at Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates for tight ends in the 4th - 6th rounds, you should probably grab them, other than that, you may as well wait until late and grab someone you like from the heap. Quarterbacks will be picked up periodolicaly during the first 8 rounds. If you see a run on them, don't jump on the bandwagon unless you're looking at Brady, Peyton Manning or Drew Brees. Some might argue some others, but Tony Romo is overhyped (usually drafted too high), and doesn't have Terrell Owens anymore. Kurt Warner is just too old to use a high pick on. As for any others, just wait, there are plenty avaialable. The exception to this is the 2-QB league, in which quarterbacks play a much larger role. As for kickers and defense, why bother? Every team plays defense and every team puts up points. If you think you know what you're doing, you may just want to avoid drafting either a kicker and a defense and just find a good matchup in free agency every week.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 4 - Take few risks
It may be fun to grab a Jeremy Maclin or Matt Stafford, but history says not to. So very few rookies make a fantasy impact their first year that it's just smarter to let someone else take a shot. Take Jamal Lewis instead of Knowshon Moreno. Players that have only had one breakout season, or who are projected to have a breakout season are just not usually worth the risk. Now, don't go and take all veterans. You may break this rule if you have a good number of very reliable players (after all, how else will you find those breakout rookies/players like Adrian Peterson?), but don't load up on them. You aren't going to recreate fantasy football by filling your team with sleepers.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 5 - Pay attention to injuries
Anyone in football is capable of getting injured, but there are some players that are just flat out injury-prone. Look out for these and make sure you don't have too many on your roster. Just about every fantasy owner will have to face issues regarding injuries, but don't let yourself be in the bottom half of the league in this category. Most fantasy leagues have 2-4 teams that are bad simply because of injuries.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 6 - Don't neglect your bench
This is somewhat of a carry-over from the last tip. As said, with so many injuries, you're going to have to turn to your bench. Even if you have the perfect, healthy season, you'll still need players to fill in on backup weeks.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 7 - Take the best player available
This tip may not work if your league isn't very open to trading. If the players do trade often though, stock up on those running backs even if you have your starting lineup filled. These are the most valuable trade bait seeing as the top backs are so limited. You'll be very tempted to fill your starting lineup before your bench, but while you're picking up Heath Miller in the 8th round to be your tight end, someone else is gobbling up Braylon Edwards. Take the player who will score the most fantasy points and not the player that fits into your starting lineup.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 8 - Don't go out of your way to handcuff
While some say this is an important part of drafting, you can't start both of the players because they're on the same team. Usually there are better players available than your handcuff. Not only stat and number-wise, these players can also be useful on your bye weeks. Another benefit is that if your non-handcuffed backup's lead competition goes down, now you have trade bait!

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 9 - Fill your bench with WRs and RBs
Backup tight ends, quarterbacks, kickers, and defenses are pointless. Unless you just have this huge feeling that a certain player is going to bust out, you can fill your bye week slots for these positions from free-agency nicely. Another reason for this is that you're going to find the most fantasy points in the late rounds from running backs and wide receivers. If you have a plethora of either of these positions, you now have trade-bait and a stronger bench than most others.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 10- Don't overlook preperation
Just about every rookie - and even some veterans - dont prepare enough. Sure, you know all the players from the top 6 rounds, and a fantasy football magazine or cheatsheet may be all you need early, but by the time owners start drafting bench players, you'll be scratching your head, drawing from a hat, and probably making a few veterans chuckle by taking a player who would have never even been drafted. If you're new to fantasy football, scan through a mock draft and pay attention to the last five rounds. You'll surely find a ton of players you've either never heard of or know nothing about. Don't be foolish, these players are still important to your team.

Hope these tips help. Feel free to add to the list in the comments section.