Debating the theory: Draft Running Backs First

Two years ago, running backs were the aces of fantasy football. With a draft board full of ball hogs such as LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Steven Jackson, everyone knew the smart thing to do in the first round was to take a stud running back.

Last year more people began breaking the rule and going wide receiver or quarterback in the first round, searching for the next or drafting the actual Tom Brady. Well, with the infamous injury, the new era of drafting sizzled out a bit, losing some of it's momentum going into 2009.

It seems like there is a bit of confusion this year. Is Adrian Peterson a sure thing? He didn't even lead the league in fantasy points last year, some guy named DeAngelo Williams (yeah I know who he is, I drafted him and then traded him away during his hype thinking that's all it was - and I still think that's all it is) topped the league in scoring for running backs. Number 2? A rookie! Matt Forte was second in scoring. Note - please disregard the last blog entry saying not to draft rookies in Draft Tip #4. Some idiot wrote that. So going back to the original point of this paragraph, the days of good old, never-doubted, #1-pick-is-LT are gone.

There is something shifting the land of the NFL. Mike Shanahanism. The man that would send out literal armies to man the running back position made it really tough to be a fantasy owner. There are teams with dual threats, tri threats, quad threats (freakin Patriots), and threats to be named later. The aforementioned Adrian Peterson? Still dealing with that pesky Chester Taylor stealing carries. To finish out this new point, just look at the third highest scoring running back of 2008: Maurice Jones Drew. Not even 1000 yards rushing (824), but had 14 total touchdowns and pulled in 565 receiving yards. And he only started 3 GAMES!

So something is going on out there in fantasy land, and we're going to dive into numbers a bit more here and see if we can figure it out together. Note that I haven't taken a real position on this debate yet because I'm still crunching all these numbers. Considering that Drew Brees outscored everyone and Andre Johnson scored over a dozen points more than leading RB DeAngelo Williams, let's look at the following possible first six rounds.

Each of these half-mock drafts are selected players that would likely be available from a 5th or 6th draft position in a 10-team league with 1 QB, 2 RBs, and 3 WRs starting:

Rd	Pos	Player	Pts*		Pos	Player	Pts*		Pos	Player	Pts*
1	RB	Tomlinson	275		QB	Brady	423		WR	Fitzgerald	320
2	RB	Gore	240		WR	Cal. Johnson	265		RB	Gore	240
3	WR	S. Smith	250		WR	S. Smith	250		QB	P. Manning	380
4	WR	Housh	230		WR	Housh	230		WR	Housh	230
5	QB	Warner	360		RB	McFadden	185		RB	McFadden	185
6	WR	B. Edwards	218		RB	Bush	180		WR	B. Edwards	218
Points: 1573					Points: 1533				Points: 1573

Rd	Pos	Player	Pts*		Pos	Player	Pts*		Pos	Player	Pts
1	WR	Fitzgerald	320		RB	Tomlinson	275		WR	Fitzgerald	320
2	WR	Cal. Johnson	265		QB	Brees	388		RB	Gore	240
3	WR	S. Smith	250		WR	S. Smith	250		WR	S. Smith	250
4	QB	A. Rodgers	375		WR	Housh	230		RB	R. Grant	210
5	RB	McFadden	185		WR	A. Gonzalez	225		WR	A. Gonzalez	225
6	RB	Bush	180		RB	Bush	180		QB	Romo	330
	Points: 1575				Points: 1548				Points: 1575

* - Point totals are based on 2008 fantasy points in particular players' slot

Sorting through these numbers, we see that 1) There isn't much difference between any way you might draft, and 2) The old theory of going running back - running back in the draft is still justified.

But we do learn now that it isn't all so neccesary to draft two running backs first. So let's look at a few more stats here to try to figure out what to do with this 2009 draft.

Pos	Avg Pts - Starters	Avg Pts - Bench	Difference
QB	350	250	100
RB	280	180	100
WR	275	175	100

In this table, the first stat column is the average of the top 10 WRs, RBs, and QBs. The 2nd stat column (Bench players) considers the average of the 11-15th ranked QBs, the 21-30th ranked RBs and the 31-40th ranked WRs. The stat proves itself somewhat useless considering that the same difference in point total exists from studs to bench players at all three major positions.

Well, in a way, we have proved a point with all of this somewhat nonsense. There aren't many reasons to stick with the old ways of grabbing the running backs early. In fact, we have pretty much proven that one can draft whichever way he likes (without dipping into the tight end, kicker, or defense pool too early) and not see a big difference in point totals.

After all of these numbers, my advice for 2009: Draft with your gut instinct.

And if you don't have a gut instinct, you'd better stick around and keep reading these blog posts.