Looking Ahead to the Playoffs

Personally, my weakness is the fantasy football playoffs.  I’ve been pretty darn good in the sense that I’ve actually never missed the playoffs in our league’s 6-year existence.  For some reason though, I’ve failed to win the big one.  With that in mind, I’ve set out to find some players that will help me with my goal of postseason success.  Below I’ve put together a chart with all 32 teams’ schedules for weeks 14, 15, and 16.  In future posts, I’ll be evaluating the opponents and identifying players to target in trades and/or free agency.

NFL Fantasy Playoff Schedules
Team	Week 14	Week 15	Week 16
New York Jets	MIA	at Pit	at Chi
New England Patriots	at Chi	GB	at Buf
Buffalo Bills	CLE	at Mia	NE
Miami Dolphins	at NYJ	BUF	DET
Baltimore Ravens	at Hou	NO	at Cle
Cleveland Browns	at Buf	at Cin	BAL
Cincinnati Bengals	at Pit	CLE	SD
Pittsburgh Steelers	CIN	NYJ	CAR
Indianapolis Colts	at Ten	JAX	at Oak
Jacksonville Jaguars	OAK	at Ind	WAS
Houston Texans	BAL	at Ten	at Den
Tennessee Titans	IND	HOU	at KC
Oakland Raiders	at Jax	DEN	IND
Denver Broncos	at Ari	at Oak	HOU
San Diego Chargers	KC	SF	at Cin
Kansas City Chiefs	at SD	at STL	TEN
New York Giants	at Min	PHI	at GB
Philadelphia Eagles	at Dal	at NYG	MIN
Dallas Cowboys	PHI	WAS	at Ari
Washington Redskins	TB	at Dal	at Jax
Minnesota Vikings	NYG	CHI	at Phi
Green Bay Packers	at Det	at NE	NYG
Detroit Lions	GB	at TB	at Mia
Chicago Bears	NE	at Min	NYJ
New Orleans Saints	STL	at Bal	at Atl
Atlanta Falcons	at Car	at Sea	NO
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	at Was	DET	SEA
Carolina Panthers	ATL	ARI	at Pit
Seattle Seahawks	at SF	ATL	at TB
San Francisco 49ers	SEA	at SD	at STL
Arizona Cardinals	DEN	at Car	DAL
St. Louis Rams	at NO	KC	SF

Fantasy Football Notes

As we really dive into the 2010 fantasy football season, players are starting to show their true colors and opportunities are quickly showing their juicy faces.  Take from below what you want and see if it helps you to a 2010 title.

Buy Low.

It’s an age-old term, but it’s one that applies plenty in fantasy football.  To steal a league title, you should find players that are not performing up to their ability yet, but should soon break out.  Maybe it’s because the player is a little banged up, or maybe he’s just seen a rough start to the season.  Here’s a couple on the radar right now.

• Rashard Mendenhall – RB – Pittsburgh Steelers -  This guy was probably taken in the first three rounds of your draft, and owners are most likely unhappy with his overall performance to date.  Aside from a 50-yard-game-ending touchdown run in week 1 against the Atlanta Falcons, Mendenhall as been Mediocrehall.  Keep in mind that defenses are stacking the box against the Steelers as they play their back-up quarterbacks.  When Ben Roethlisberger returns to action, expect Mendenhall’s numbers to jump significantly.  Trade for him now!
• Carson Palmer – QB – Cincinnati Bengals -  The Bengals should be a juggernaut this season on offense.  Now, in the NFL, you never know when a team is going to play well, but with Chad OchoCinco, Terrell Owens, Cedric Benson, and even Jermaine Gresham as his weapons, Palmer is bound to start lighting it up soon.  Go grab him while owners are pissed off about his poor week 2 performance.
• Ronnie Brown – RB – Miami Dolphins – He might not be the greatest example here, but just looking at Miami’s schedule in the late weeks when fantasy leagues are in their playoffs should be enough for you to covet this back.  Also look at Brandon Marshall and possibly Chad Henne.

Fantasy Football: Is Adrian Peterson Really #1?

LaDainian Tomlinson eased every fantasy player's heart. You got the sure thing, you didn't have to think, and it always paid off. LT was worthy of the respect he gained during his amazing run as the undisputed first pick in fantasy football. He graced fantasy magazine covers to the point that the publishers had to search for other players to enshrine out of boredom of the obvious.

That boredom is no more. The public though, wants a sure-fire can't-miss first-pick-over-all stud running back. Quarterbacks and Wide Recievers cannot be drafted number 1. In fact, there's a bit of an unwritten rule that non-running-backs can't be drafted in the first 6 picks. Tom Brady tried to break that rule last year, and look what happened. Bernard Pollard doesn't seem to like quarterbacks drafted in the first round of fantasy football.

So now the search has rested on Adrian Peterson. No one is questioning it, he's the new LT. It almost seems like the public was so desperate to find a new LT that they settled on the first one who came along. No doubt, Peterson had an amazing rookie season. He had a pretty stellar second season too. Problem is, he got hurt, and he was not the top scoring RB. Tomlinson has missed 1 game in his entire career. LT also scored 2 more total touchdowns than AP last year.

Now this is not an argument to put LT over AP or really, anyone over AP. What I'm trying to say here is to have an open mind. Go ahead and pick Peterson with the first pick this year, but make sure to re-analyze the position before next years draft. If he fails to top the league in RB scoring again, then he is still not on LT status yet.

Or just maybe, if you want to buck the trent and open your mind and take a large gamble, pick Tom Brady #1.

(disclaimer: I am not a Tom Brady or New England Patriots fan. I just have a feeling that we're going to see a little bit of 2007 all over again)

Fan's Decision - Top Fantasy Running Backs

Today's Fan Decision Poll was for Running Backs. Adrian Peterson was probably #1 on 90 percent of the votes and listed on 100% of the top 5 lists. I asked a couple of message boards who their top 5 running backs were.

For 1st place votes, 5 points were awarded, 2nd place - 4 points, 3rd place - 3 points, 4nd place - 2 points, 5th place - 1 point.

Adrian Peterson - 173
Maurice Jones-Drew - 112
Matt Forte - 91
Michael Turner - 81
Steven Jackson -33
LaDainian Tomlinson - 20
Chris Johnson - 11
Steve Slaton - 10
DeAngelo Williams - 7
Pierre Thomas - 4
Frank Gore - 4
Thomas Jones - 2
Brandon Jacobs - 2
Brian Westbrook - 2
Larry Johnson - 1
Derrick Ward - 1
Clinton Portis - 1

It looks more and more like Maurice Jones-Drew is growing into the consensus #2 back in the land. Thanks to all the posters for participating in this poll

Fantasy Football Top Running Backs

Running backs are usually the lifeblood of any fantasy football team, but this year looks to be a bit different. The number of platoon backfields is increasing, and workhorse backs are harder to find. With the importance of landing a stud at this position, our rankings tend to lean towards the veterans.

Top 10 Running Backs for 2009

1. Adrian Peterson - Minnesota Vikings

I've been unsuccessfully searching for reasons why I should NOT put A.P. here at number 1. Running behind a great offensive line, Peterson has rushed for the third most yards all time in a player's first two seasons, only behind Eric Dickerson and Jim Brown. He is a workhorse, but doesn't get a ton of looks in the passing game (only 21 receptions last year).

2. LaDainian Tomlinson - San Diego Chargers

Most fantasy experts have L.T. slotted below this spot, but here's a nod for the steady veteran. Tomlinson has only missed 1 game in his 8 year career, while amassing more than 1,100 yards in every season. 2008 did mark a decline in his numbers though. He rushed for a career low 1,110 yards, hauled in his second fewest receptions at 52, and failed to complete a pass for the first time since 2002. Despite the decline, and the dreaded 30th birthday in June, L.T. is still such a steady pick in the midst of a bunch of question marks in the first round.

3. Matt Forte - Chicago Bears

It was so hard to put a 2nd year player into the third spot here, but after last season, we think it's justified. Forte is one of the few remaining workhorse backs, and with the addition of Jay Cutler, defenses will have a little more to worry about.

4. Michael Turner - Atlanta Falcons

Turner could end up at the top of this list by January. Problem is, he disappeared from the stat sheet during several games against tough rushing defenses. This problem escalates considering the 2009 schedule, which is the toughest run-defense schedule in the league. However, Turner will receive a little boost in blocking and the ability to distract covering linebackers with the addition of Tony Gonzalez.

5. Maurice Jones-Drew - Jacksonville Jaguars

Every year, I want to tell everyone that this guy's frame just can't hold up in the NFL. I still believe this, but stats have proved me wrong so far. MJD has missed less than 2 games to injury in his first three seasons. What's more to like is that Fred Taylor has moved on, leaving more action for Pocket Hercules. He is also a major weapon in the passing game, pulling in 62 receptions in 2008.

6. Steven Jackson - St. Louis Rams

Jackson's stock has been on the decline since his amazing peak season of 2006. Injuries have held him back a bit the last two seasons. However, with St. Louis planning to employ a run-heavy west coast offense similar to the Eagles, Jackson will be a workhorse with the chance to be the class of the league.

7. Clinton Portis - Washington Redskins

If you only count the first half of last year, Portis would probably replace A.P. as the #1 back. The NFL, however, plays a 16 game season in which Portis stumbled through the final 8 games, topping the 80-yard mark only one time. Ladell Betts is sneaking up and stealing more and more carries, but Portis remains a workhorse for the Redskins as he has totalled more than 1200 yards rushing and 320 carries the last two seasons while playing all 32 games.

8. Thomas Jones - New York Jets

The departure of Brett Favre could mean a stacked defensive front against Jones, but with rookie Mark Sanchez taking over, it also means the Jets will have to lean on their running game more. Jones was in the media for negative comments towards Favre and the Jets and missing most of the team's voluntary workouts, but lately has said, "I'm happy. I'm here for camp. I'm excited for the season." The major concerns lie with the emerging Leon Washington, and the traded-up-for Shonn Greene in the third round of the NFL draft.

9. Brian Westbrook - Philadelphia Eagles

If this guy could just stay healthy, he'd be a sure-fire top 3 pick every year. After two offseason surgeries and the drafting of LeSean McCoy in the 2nd round, Westbrook's stock has dropped off a bit. He is still a game-changer when he's on the field. If he stays healthy, he could very well be the juice that puts a fantasy team into the championship. The latest reports are good too: Eagles coach Andy Reid says that Westbrook is cutting and running at full speed.

10. Steve Slaton - Houston Texans

Slaton started 2008 totally under the radar as Houston's third choice at running back. His durability has been questioned, but after 268 carries last year, he quieted those sentiments a little bit. On an improving (possibly soon-to-be powerhouse) offense, Slaton looks to repeat the success he found in his rookie season. Only this year, the pressure is on.

Just missed the Top 10:

• Chris Johnson - Explosive, high ceiling, but shares the backfield.
• Frank Gore - Workhorse you may be able to steal in 2nd round
• DeAngelo Williams - Healthy Stewart + tougher schedule = won't repeat 2008 performance
• Marion Barber - Hasn't proven he can take entire load, but will be leaned on more with T.O. gone
• Larry Johnson - Diving over line early in August is a good sign that LJ is back.
  

Fan's Decision - Top Fantasy Quarterbacks

Today I conducted a fan poll on a message board. I asked for top 5 quarterbacks, and got a good response. Here is what the fans thought today:

Player - Points (5pts for 1st place votes, 4pts for 2nd, ....... 1 pt for 5th)


Drew Brees: 72
Tom Brady: 63
Peyton Manning: 49
Philip Rivers: 21
Aaron Rodgers : 17
Kurt Warner: 10
Tony Romo : 3
Carson Palmer : 3
Matt Ryan: 1
Donovan McNabb: 1

Fantasy Football Top Quarterbacks

Fantasy Football Hero brings you the first installment of the top fantasy players series. The pilots of the offense are the first to be ranked for many reasons unnecessary to discuss here.

Top 10 Quarterbacks for 2009

1. Tom Brady - New England Patriots

Too bold to give him the top spot after missing 2008? Ask Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, and Philip Rivers who all rebounded strongly after having the same ACL surgery. His 2007 performance just forces his position here. Adding Joey Galloway to the receiver core can only help.

2. Drew Brees - New Orleans Saints

Even though he topped the league last year in fantasy points, Brees was actually pretty inconsistant. In eight road games, he threw only 11 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. Having him on your roster can almost be a liability when he's away from the Dome.

3. Peyton Manning - Indianapolis Colts

The commercial superstar could very well end up in the top spot at the end of the season. However, with age catching up and changes to the offense, there could be a dropoff in Peyton's numbers this season. Realistically, I think he'll be a top 5 fantasy QB until the day he retires.

4. Philip Rivers - San Diego Chargers

This is one guy to watch out for. Leading the league in QB rating, 2008 was the best season in his career. There's no reason to think Rivers isn't on the rise. For three years now, he hasn't missed a game.

5. Donovan McNabb - Philadelphia Eagles

McNabb is pretty solid, if not spectacular, when he's on the field. The problem lies with his injuries. Only four times in his 10-year career has he played all 16 games. The biggest worry though sits in the last five years as McNabb has only completed a full season once. If he does repeat last year's health, Donovan should be in for a big year. The offensive line was improved and a couple of new weapons were drafted in Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy.

6. Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers

Rodgers is a quarterback with an uncalculated ceiling. He could be set up for a letdown year after he burst onto the scene in 2008, especially playing behind a suspect offensive line. However, with the emerging Greg Jennings, still reliable Donald Driver, and solid Ryan Grant; Rodgers has the weapons needed to bring the playoffs back to the Tundra.

7. Matt Ryan - Atlanta Falcons

A second year player surely carries a risk. Or does he? How can you factor in how big a role Tony Gonzalez will play in the Falcons offense. Just ask Trent Green and Tyler Thigpen, two guys who put up great numbers just because of the greatest tight end of all time, Gonzalez. What can Matt Ryan do with this amazing addition to Roddy White and Michael Turner? The sky is the limit.

8. Matt Schaub - Houston Texans

As long as he stays on the field, this should be Schaub's year to breakout. Armed with a strong arsenal constisting of Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Owen Daniels and Steve Slaton, Schaub has the weapons to lead this time into the playoffs. If you miss out on some of the studs, this is a good sleeper pick that could surprise.

9. Matt Hasselbeck - Seattle Seahawks

Hasselbeck threw more than 20 touchdown passes four out of five years before his injury last season. The only year he missed the mark in that stretch was in 2006 when he only played 12 games. There are worries that he could be on the down slope of his career, but I think the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh is just what Matt and the Seahawks needed.

10. Tony Romo - Dallas Cowboys

This could be a surprise, but the only reason Romo was a top pick last year was because of his 2007 breakout 36 touchdown season. OK, he was decent last season, but losing Terrell Owens is not going to help his cause.

Just missed the Top 10:

• Kurt Warner - Missed games every year from 2002-2007. We think he'll find his way back onto the bench.
• Jay Cutler - Just isn't in a favorable quarterback situation in Chicago.
• Ben Roethlisberger - Solid QB, but we expect a Super Bowl dropoff.
• Carson Palmer - Could be top 10 or bottom 10. He needs to reprove himself.
  
• Trent Edwards - T.O. makes him a sleeper at this spot.