Fantasy Football Hero

Looking Ahead to the Playoffs

2010-09-22T16:13:00.001-07:00

Personally, my weakness is the fantasy football playoffs. I’ve been pretty darn good in the sense that I’ve actually never missed the playoffs in our league’s 6-year existence. For some reason though, I’ve failed to win the big one. With that in mind, I’ve set out to find some players that will help me with my goal of postseason success. Below I’ve put together a chart with all 32 teams’ schedules for weeks 14, 15, and 16. In future posts, I’ll be evaluating the opponents and identifying players to target in trades and/or free agency.

NFL Fantasy Playoff Schedules
*Team*	*Week 14*	*Week 15*	*Week 16*
New York Jets	MIA	at Pit	at Chi
New England Patriots	at Chi	GB	at Buf
Buffalo Bills	CLE	at Mia	NE
Miami Dolphins	at NYJ	BUF	DET
Baltimore Ravens	at Hou	NO	at Cle
Cleveland Browns	at Buf	at Cin	BAL
Cincinnati Bengals	at Pit	CLE	SD
Pittsburgh Steelers	CIN	NYJ	CAR
Indianapolis Colts	at Ten	JAX	at Oak
Jacksonville Jaguars	OAK	at Ind	WAS
Houston Texans	BAL	at Ten	at Den
Tennessee Titans	IND	HOU	at KC
Oakland Raiders	at Jax	DEN	IND
Denver Broncos	at Ari	at Oak	HOU
San Diego Chargers	KC	SF	at Cin
Kansas City Chiefs	at SD	at STL	TEN
New York Giants	at Min	PHI	at GB
Philadelphia Eagles	at Dal	at NYG	MIN
Dallas Cowboys	PHI	WAS	at Ari
Washington Redskins	TB	at Dal	at Jax
Minnesota Vikings	NYG	CHI	at Phi
Green Bay Packers	at Det	at NE	NYG
Detroit Lions	GB	at TB	at Mia
Chicago Bears	NE	at Min	NYJ
New Orleans Saints	STL	at Bal	at Atl
Atlanta Falcons	at Car	at Sea	NO
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	at Was	DET	SEA
Carolina Panthers	ATL	ARI	at Pit
Seattle Seahawks	at SF	ATL	at TB
San Francisco 49ers	SEA	at SD	at STL
Arizona Cardinals	DEN	at Car	DAL
St. Louis Rams	at NO	KC	SF

Fantasy Football Notes

2010-09-21T00:25:00.001-07:00

As we really dive into the 2010 fantasy football season, players are starting to show their true colors and opportunities are quickly showing their juicy faces. Take from below what you want and see if it helps you to a 2010 title.

Buy Low.

It’s an age-old term, but it’s one that applies plenty in fantasy football. To steal a league title, you should find players that are not performing up to their ability yet, but should soon break out. Maybe it’s because the player is a little banged up, or maybe he’s just seen a rough start to the season. Here’s a couple on the radar right now.

Rashard Mendenhall – RB – Pittsburgh Steelers - This guy was probably taken in the first three rounds of your draft, and owners are most likely unhappy with his overall performance to date. Aside from a 50-yard-game-ending touchdown run in week 1 against the Atlanta Falcons, Mendenhall as been Mediocrehall. Keep in mind that defenses are stacking the box against the Steelers as they play their back-up quarterbacks. When Ben Roethlisberger returns to action, expect Mendenhall’s numbers to jump significantly. Trade for him now!
Carson Palmer – QB – Cincinnati Bengals - The Bengals should be a juggernaut this season on offense. Now, in the NFL, you never know when a team is going to play well, but with Chad OchoCinco, Terrell Owens, Cedric Benson, and even Jermaine Gresham as his weapons, Palmer is bound to start lighting it up soon. Go grab him while owners are pissed off about his poor week 2 performance.
Ronnie Brown – RB – Miami Dolphins – He might not be the greatest example here, but just looking at Miami’s schedule in the late weeks when fantasy leagues are in their playoffs should be enough for you to covet this back. Also look at Brandon Marshall and possibly Chad Henne.

Fantasy Football: Is Adrian Peterson Really #1?

2009-08-08T14:39:00.000-07:00

LaDainian Tomlinson eased every fantasy player's heart. You got the sure thing, you didn't have to think, and it always paid off. LT was worthy of the respect he gained during his amazing run as the undisputed first pick in fantasy football. He graced fantasy magazine covers to the point that the publishers had to search for other players to enshrine out of boredom of the obvious.

That boredom is no more. The public though, wants a sure-fire can't-miss first-pick-over-all stud running back. Quarterbacks and Wide Recievers cannot be drafted number 1. In fact, there's a bit of an unwritten rule that non-running-backs can't be drafted in the first 6 picks. Tom Brady tried to break that rule last year, and look what happened. Bernard Pollard doesn't seem to like quarterbacks drafted in the first round of fantasy football.

So now the search has rested on Adrian Peterson. No one is questioning it, he's the new LT. It almost seems like the public was so desperate to find a new LT that they settled on the first one who came along. No doubt, Peterson had an amazing rookie season. He had a pretty stellar second season too. Problem is, he got hurt, and he was not the top scoring RB. Tomlinson has missed 1 game in his entire career. LT also scored 2 more total touchdowns than AP last year.

Now this is not an argument to put LT over AP or really, anyone over AP. What I'm trying to say here is to have an open mind. Go ahead and pick Peterson with the first pick this year, but make sure to re-analyze the position before next years draft. If he fails to top the league in RB scoring again, then he is still not on LT status yet.

Or just maybe, if you want to buck the trent and open your mind and take a large gamble, pick Tom Brady #1.

(disclaimer: I am not a Tom Brady or New England Patriots fan. I just have a feeling that we're going to see a little bit of 2007 all over again)

Fan's Decision - Top Fantasy Running Backs

2009-08-05T12:46:00.000-07:00

Today's Fan Decision Poll was for Running Backs. Adrian Peterson was probably #1 on 90 percent of the votes and listed on 100% of the top 5 lists. I asked a couple of message boards who their top 5 running backs were.

For 1st place votes, 5 points were awarded, 2nd place - 4 points, 3rd place - 3 points, 4nd place - 2 points, 5th place - 1 point.

Adrian Peterson - 173
Maurice Jones-Drew - 112
Matt Forte - 91
Michael Turner - 81
Steven Jackson -33
LaDainian Tomlinson - 20
Chris Johnson - 11
Steve Slaton - 10
DeAngelo Williams - 7
Pierre Thomas - 4
Frank Gore - 4
Thomas Jones - 2
Brandon Jacobs - 2
Brian Westbrook - 2
Larry Johnson - 1
Derrick Ward - 1
Clinton Portis - 1

It looks more and more like Maurice Jones-Drew is growing into the consensus #2 back in the land. Thanks to all the posters for participating in this poll

Fantasy Football Top Running Backs

2009-08-05T09:32:00.000-07:00

Running backs are usually the lifeblood of any fantasy football team, but this year looks to be a bit different. The number of platoon backfields is increasing, and workhorse backs are harder to find. With the importance of landing a stud at this position, our rankings tend to lean towards the veterans.

Top 10 Running Backs for 2009

1. Adrian Peterson - Minnesota Vikings

I've been unsuccessfully searching for reasons why I should NOT put A.P. here at number 1. Running behind a great offensive line, Peterson has rushed for the third most yards all time in a player's first two seasons, only behind Eric Dickerson and Jim Brown. He is a workhorse, but doesn't get a ton of looks in the passing game (only 21 receptions last year).

2. LaDainian Tomlinson - San Diego Chargers

Most fantasy experts have L.T. slotted below this spot, but here's a nod for the steady veteran. Tomlinson has only missed 1 game in his 8 year career, while amassing more than 1,100 yards in every season. 2008 did mark a decline in his numbers though. He rushed for a career low 1,110 yards, hauled in his second fewest receptions at 52, and failed to complete a pass for the first time since 2002. Despite the decline, and the dreaded 30th birthday in June, L.T. is still such a steady pick in the midst of a bunch of question marks in the first round.

3. Matt Forte - Chicago Bears

It was so hard to put a 2nd year player into the third spot here, but after last season, we think it's justified. Forte is one of the few remaining workhorse backs, and with the addition of Jay Cutler, defenses will have a little more to worry about.

4. Michael Turner - Atlanta Falcons

Turner could end up at the top of this list by January. Problem is, he disappeared from the stat sheet during several games against tough rushing defenses. This problem escalates considering the 2009 schedule, which is the toughest run-defense schedule in the league. However, Turner will receive a little boost in blocking and the ability to distract covering linebackers with the addition of Tony Gonzalez.

5. Maurice Jones-Drew - Jacksonville Jaguars

Every year, I want to tell everyone that this guy's frame just can't hold up in the NFL. I still believe this, but stats have proved me wrong so far. MJD has missed less than 2 games to injury in his first three seasons. What's more to like is that Fred Taylor has moved on, leaving more action for Pocket Hercules. He is also a major weapon in the passing game, pulling in 62 receptions in 2008.

6. Steven Jackson - St. Louis Rams

Jackson's stock has been on the decline since his amazing peak season of 2006. Injuries have held him back a bit the last two seasons. However, with St. Louis planning to employ a run-heavy west coast offense similar to the Eagles, Jackson will be a workhorse with the chance to be the class of the league.

7. Clinton Portis - Washington Redskins

If you only count the first half of last year, Portis would probably replace A.P. as the #1 back. The NFL, however, plays a 16 game season in which Portis stumbled through the final 8 games, topping the 80-yard mark only one time. Ladell Betts is sneaking up and stealing more and more carries, but Portis remains a workhorse for the Redskins as he has totalled more than 1200 yards rushing and 320 carries the last two seasons while playing all 32 games.

8. Thomas Jones - New York Jets

The departure of Brett Favre could mean a stacked defensive front against Jones, but with rookie Mark Sanchez taking over, it also means the Jets will have to lean on their running game more. Jones was in the media for negative comments towards Favre and the Jets and missing most of the team's voluntary workouts, but lately has said, "I'm happy. I'm here for camp. I'm excited for the season." The major concerns lie with the emerging Leon Washington, and the traded-up-for Shonn Greene in the third round of the NFL draft.

9. Brian Westbrook - Philadelphia Eagles

If this guy could just stay healthy, he'd be a sure-fire top 3 pick every year. After two offseason surgeries and the drafting of LeSean McCoy in the 2nd round, Westbrook's stock has dropped off a bit. He is still a game-changer when he's on the field. If he stays healthy, he could very well be the juice that puts a fantasy team into the championship. The latest reports are good too: Eagles coach Andy Reid says that Westbrook is cutting and running at full speed.

10. Steve Slaton - Houston Texans

Slaton started 2008 totally under the radar as Houston's third choice at running back. His durability has been questioned, but after 268 carries last year, he quieted those sentiments a little bit. On an improving (possibly soon-to-be powerhouse) offense, Slaton looks to repeat the success he found in his rookie season. Only this year, the pressure is on.

Just missed the Top 10:

Chris Johnson - Explosive, high ceiling, but shares the backfield.
Frank Gore - Workhorse you may be able to steal in 2nd round
DeAngelo Williams - Healthy Stewart + tougher schedule = won't repeat 2008 performance
Marion Barber - Hasn't proven he can take entire load, but will be leaned on more with T.O. gone
Larry Johnson - Diving over line early in August is a good sign that LJ is back.

Fan's Decision - Top Fantasy Quarterbacks

2009-08-03T16:00:00.000-07:00

Today I conducted a fan poll on a message board. I asked for top 5 quarterbacks, and got a good response. Here is what the fans thought today:

Player - Points (5pts for 1st place votes, 4pts for 2nd, ....... 1 pt for 5th)

Drew Brees: 72
Tom Brady: 63
Peyton Manning: 49
Philip Rivers: 21
Aaron Rodgers : 17
Kurt Warner: 10
Tony Romo : 3
Carson Palmer : 3
Matt Ryan: 1
Donovan McNabb: 1

Fantasy Football Top Quarterbacks

2009-08-03T13:22:00.000-07:00

Fantasy Football Hero brings you the first installment of the top fantasy players series. The pilots of the offense are the first to be ranked for many reasons unnecessary to discuss here.

Top 10 Quarterbacks for 2009

1. Tom Brady - New England Patriots

Too bold to give him the top spot after missing 2008? Ask Carson Palmer, Donovan McNabb, and Philip Rivers who all rebounded strongly after having the same ACL surgery. His 2007 performance just forces his position here. Adding Joey Galloway to the receiver core can only help.

2. Drew Brees - New Orleans Saints

Even though he topped the league last year in fantasy points, Brees was actually pretty inconsistant. In eight road games, he threw only 11 touchdowns with 12 interceptions. Having him on your roster can almost be a liability when he's away from the Dome.

3. Peyton Manning - Indianapolis Colts

The commercial superstar could very well end up in the top spot at the end of the season. However, with age catching up and changes to the offense, there could be a dropoff in Peyton's numbers this season. Realistically, I think he'll be a top 5 fantasy QB until the day he retires.

4. Philip Rivers - San Diego Chargers

This is one guy to watch out for. Leading the league in QB rating, 2008 was the best season in his career. There's no reason to think Rivers isn't on the rise. For three years now, he hasn't missed a game.

5. Donovan McNabb - Philadelphia Eagles

McNabb is pretty solid, if not spectacular, when he's on the field. The problem lies with his injuries. Only four times in his 10-year career has he played all 16 games. The biggest worry though sits in the last five years as McNabb has only completed a full season once. If he does repeat last year's health, Donovan should be in for a big year. The offensive line was improved and a couple of new weapons were drafted in Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy.

6. Aaron Rodgers - Green Bay Packers

Rodgers is a quarterback with an uncalculated ceiling. He could be set up for a letdown year after he burst onto the scene in 2008, especially playing behind a suspect offensive line. However, with the emerging Greg Jennings, still reliable Donald Driver, and solid Ryan Grant; Rodgers has the weapons needed to bring the playoffs back to the Tundra.

7. Matt Ryan - Atlanta Falcons

A second year player surely carries a risk. Or does he? How can you factor in how big a role Tony Gonzalez will play in the Falcons offense. Just ask Trent Green and Tyler Thigpen, two guys who put up great numbers just because of the greatest tight end of all time, Gonzalez. What can Matt Ryan do with this amazing addition to Roddy White and Michael Turner? The sky is the limit.

8. Matt Schaub - Houston Texans

As long as he stays on the field, this should be Schaub's year to breakout. Armed with a strong arsenal constisting of Andre Johnson, Kevin Walter, Owen Daniels and Steve Slaton, Schaub has the weapons to lead this time into the playoffs. If you miss out on some of the studs, this is a good sleeper pick that could surprise.

9. Matt Hasselbeck - Seattle Seahawks

Hasselbeck threw more than 20 touchdown passes four out of five years before his injury last season. The only year he missed the mark in that stretch was in 2006 when he only played 12 games. There are worries that he could be on the down slope of his career, but I think the addition of T.J. Houshmandzadeh is just what Matt and the Seahawks needed.

10. Tony Romo - Dallas Cowboys

This could be a surprise, but the only reason Romo was a top pick last year was because of his 2007 breakout 36 touchdown season. OK, he was decent last season, but losing Terrell Owens is not going to help his cause.

Just missed the Top 10:

Kurt Warner - Missed games every year from 2002-2007. We think he'll find his way back onto the bench.
Jay Cutler - Just isn't in a favorable quarterback situation in Chicago.
Ben Roethlisberger - Solid QB, but we expect a Super Bowl dropoff.
Carson Palmer - Could be top 10 or bottom 10. He needs to reprove himself.
Trent Edwards - T.O. makes him a sleeper at this spot.

Fantasy Football Leagues With Two Quarterbacks

2009-08-03T01:10:00.000-07:00

No one really knows enough in the preseason. It's also probably one of fantasy football's alluring factors, being that it's such a game of luck. That's how the World Series of Poker (WSOP) caught on. For any of you that have ever heard of Chris Moneymaker, you know what I'm talking about.

So you can't really win $millions in fantasy football, but it does usually involve a lot of luck with a pinch of skill. For that same reason, you'll hear different opinions all across the fantasy world. One guy likes Matt Ryan, here's another who thinks it's Jay Cutler's year. Oh wait, this girl over here thinks Cutler won't be a fantasy hit because of Chicago's play style. Oh, what's that? Matt Stafford's the next Matt Ryan who is actually the next Matt Damon. Wait, what?

Exactly. I'm still waiting on Rounders 2, Mr. Ryan.

There is a solution to this problem. Allow a bit of determination, research and skill decide the fantasy football championship. Have the league Start TWO Quarterbacks! This way, Matt Schaub is actually worthwhile to have on a team. Matt Hasselbeck? Sure, at least as a backup somewhere. This style of play is catching on, and it gives a home to guys like Matt Leinart. Well maybe not until Kurt Warner's holy arm wears out.

Starting two signal-callers balances out the roster so that 1 or 2 players don't carry a team week in and week out. Ideally the league would also add a slash position or extra player elsewhere to even out the impact that both quarterbacks will make. Having this sort of roster setup tones down the gambling part of the game. Those rookies aren't going to be able to come in, make a couple of lucky picks, and dance their way to the title. This is how veteran leagues should be set up.

Think of the possible draft strategies. With the instant leap of quarterback importance, do you go QB-QB first two rounds? How would you like to have Tom Brady and Drew Brees leading your team this year? While that guy is taking the QBs, another could pop off and grab the great RBs, while yet another is stuffing his team with four solid wide receivers. This method of play seriously takes the game to a new exciting level.

Just to warn any of you about-to-be commissioners looking for a way to spice up your league. I would advise you to put some restrictions on number of quarterbacks on roster. Allow teams to have quarterbacks from only 3 different teams, with a stipulation allowing more if there is an injury or multiple bye weeks. A 2 QB per roster rule would probably have to be instated with 12-team+ leagues. It takes some thinking, but hey, email me if you need help figuring it out. I've been on the rules committee for a 2-QB league for a few years now, involving 10 and 12 team leagues.

So, in summary, do you guys think I should change my kid's name to Matt and start building up his throwing arm?

Bloggers Fantasy Football League

2009-08-03T01:05:00.000-07:00

Calling all fantasy football bloggers!

Think you have what it takes to compete in a league against bloggers from the same field? Bring it on. We're starting the FBL (Fantasy Bloggers League) this year and are searching for a few more team owners. The league will be free and played on a site determined by league votes (Yahoo, ESPN, other). The main incentives are fun and competition, but it will also surely be a fun source for blog content.

If you're interested, leave a comment here, or send me an email at derek@millercards.net.

Fantasy Football Tip: Don't Draft a Kicker

2009-08-02T19:45:00.000-07:00

Blame Rob Bironas. Him and his seven damn field goals made everyone just a little more stupid last year, as it seemed to make fantasy owners reach just a little bit higher for kickers.

These wanna-be soccer players shouldn't even be drafted. Excuse my disliking for the sport of soccer and people who kick things just for a minute and let me explain.

Bironas lived up to his legend - somewhat. Besides the Titans' kicker, who ranked 4th in fantasy points for kickers (15 points off of the leader), the following kickers were reached for as early as the 9th round in some drafts. Their names are followed by the overall place in kickers' fantasy points, with the distance from the leader following that:

Stephen Goskowski --- 1st --- (159 points)
Rob Bironas --- 4th --- ( -15 points behind leader)
Nate Kaeding --- 13th --- (-27 points)
Neil Rackers --- 16th --- (-32 points)
Nick Folk --- 20th --- (-43 points)
Adam Vinatieri --- 24th --- (-48 points)
Shayne Graham --- 28th --- (-72 points)

Poor Bengals.

So the facts show that if you did draft Gostkowski or Bironas, it may have payed off a little. However, on average, if you drafted a kicker before the last round, you probably deserved a failing grade in that round of the draft.

My questions to you are now:

1) Why reach for a kicker when no one seems to have any idea who the top 10 kickers are?

2) Why even draft a kicker when you can get a real player who may just make an impact on preseason games and increase his value?

Still not convinced? Take a look at this handful of players that were drafted after the first kicker was taken in one of my leagues last year: Ronnie Brown, LenDale White, Donald Driver, Matt Forte, Santana Moss, Jay Cutler, and Bernard Berrian. Who wouldn't like any of these players on their bench or even in their starting lineup?

My advice to fantasy players would be to either wait until the last round to draft a kicker, or to wait until the week of the first game to pick up a kicker in free agency. Ideally one would probably be best just picking up different kickers with good matchups every week.

Debating the theory: Draft Running Backs First

2009-08-01T18:00:00.000-07:00

Two years ago, running backs were the aces of fantasy football. With a draft board full of ball hogs such as LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Steven Jackson, everyone knew the smart thing to do in the first round was to take a stud running back.

Last year more people began breaking the rule and going wide receiver or quarterback in the first round, searching for the next or drafting the actual Tom Brady. Well, with the infamous injury, the new era of drafting sizzled out a bit, losing some of it's momentum going into 2009.

It seems like there is a bit of confusion this year. Is Adrian Peterson a sure thing? He didn't even lead the league in fantasy points last year, some guy named DeAngelo Williams (yeah I know who he is, I drafted him and then traded him away during his hype thinking that's all it was - and I still think that's all it is) topped the league in scoring for running backs. Number 2? A rookie! Matt Forte was second in scoring. Note - please disregard the last blog entry saying not to draft rookies in Draft Tip #4. Some idiot wrote that. So going back to the original point of this paragraph, the days of good old, never-doubted, #1-pick-is-LT are gone.

There is something shifting the land of the NFL. Mike Shanahanism. The man that would send out literal armies to man the running back position made it really tough to be a fantasy owner. There are teams with dual threats, tri threats, quad threats (freakin Patriots), and threats to be named later. The aforementioned Adrian Peterson? Still dealing with that pesky Chester Taylor stealing carries. To finish out this new point, just look at the third highest scoring running back of 2008: Maurice Jones Drew. Not even 1000 yards rushing (824), but had 14 total touchdowns and pulled in 565 receiving yards. And he only started 3 GAMES!

So something is going on out there in fantasy land, and we're going to dive into numbers a bit more here and see if we can figure it out together. Note that I haven't taken a real position on this debate yet because I'm still crunching all these numbers. Considering that Drew Brees outscored everyone and Andre Johnson scored over a dozen points more than leading RB DeAngelo Williams, let's look at the following possible first six rounds.

Each of these half-mock drafts are selected players that would likely be available from a 5th or 6th draft position in a 10-team league with 1 QB, 2 RBs, and 3 WRs starting:

Rd	Pos	Player	Pts*	Pos	Player	Pts*	Pos	Player	Pts*
1	RB	Tomlinson	275	QB	Brady	423	WR	Fitzgerald	320
2	RB	Gore	240	WR	Cal. Johnson	265	RB	Gore	240
3	WR	S. Smith	250	WR	S. Smith	250	QB	P. Manning	380
4	WR	Housh	230	WR	Housh	230	WR	Housh	230
5	QB	Warner	360	RB	McFadden	185	RB	McFadden	185
6	WR	B. Edwards	218	RB	Bush	180	WR	B. Edwards	218
Points: 1573				Points: 1533			Points: 1573

Rd	Pos	Player	Pts*	Pos	Player	Pts*	Pos	Player	Pts
1	WR	Fitzgerald	320	RB	Tomlinson	275	WR	Fitzgerald	320
2	WR	Cal. Johnson	265	QB	Brees	388	RB	Gore	240
3	WR	S. Smith	250	WR	S. Smith	250	WR	S. Smith	250
4	QB	A. Rodgers	375	WR	Housh	230	RB	R. Grant	210
5	RB	McFadden	185	WR	A. Gonzalez	225	WR	A. Gonzalez	225
6	RB	Bush	180	RB	Bush	180	QB	Romo	330
	Points: 1575			Points: 1548			Points: 1575

* - Point totals are based on 2008 fantasy points in particular players' slot

Sorting through these numbers, we see that 1) There isn't much difference between any way you might draft, and 2) The old theory of going running back - running back in the draft is still justified.

But we do learn now that it isn't all so neccesary to draft two running backs first. So let's look at a few more stats here to try to figure out what to do with this 2009 draft.

Pos	Avg Pts - Starters	Avg Pts - Bench	Difference
QB	350	250	100
RB	280	180	100
WR	275	175	100

In this table, the first stat column is the average of the top 10 WRs, RBs, and QBs. The 2nd stat column (Bench players) considers the average of the 11-15th ranked QBs, the 21-30th ranked RBs and the 31-40th ranked WRs. The stat proves itself somewhat useless considering that the same difference in point total exists from studs to bench players at all three major positions.

Well, in a way, we have proved a point with all of this somewhat nonsense. There aren't many reasons to stick with the old ways of grabbing the running backs early. In fact, we have pretty much proven that one can draft whichever way he likes (without dipping into the tight end, kicker, or defense pool too early) and not see a big difference in point totals.

After all of these numbers, my advice for 2009: Draft with your gut instinct.

And if you don't have a gut instinct, you'd better stick around and keep reading these blog posts.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy

2009-07-31T20:40:00.000-07:00

So you're a loser, huh?

I don't mean to offend you, but if you're reading this, you must have lost last year or you wouldn't need a new strategy. Truth is though, a little outside help never hurts anyone in fantasy football. Actually, even some winners don't really have a good draft strategy. How many of you all played in a league two years back, and the guy with Tom Brady tore through the league, while thinking they were the best all time fantasy player, when in actuality, their team wasn't so great?

Yes, my buddy was one of those guys. He had no running backs, no receivers, but with Brady atop the lineup, everything went smooth for him. Well let me tell you something, Tom Brady doesn't come around that often. The year he had will probably not be duplicated in dozens of years. He's back? Oh no!

Well, with that, let me revise my strategy list real quick.....

OK, I'm back. The following draft strategies should benefit anyone and everyone. Enjoy!

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 1 - Draft Tom Brady!

Maybe this one is a little tough to accomplish, but you may not want to let him slide past you in the first round. The Patriots were ridiculous in 2007. If Brady puts up just 80% of what he did that year, you'd be a fool to not want him as your quarterback.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 2 - Grab some running backs!
If you've been around fantasy football before, you know the drill. Running backs are the lifeblood of a fantasy team. This strategy may be slipping a little bit with all of the double (and even triple!) threat backfields, but if you can grab a stud (a RB who gets most of his team's carries), you'll be happy with the results. If you find yourself short on running backs after most of the big names have gone off the board, grab some BABUs (backups about to break out).

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 3 - Supply and Demand
With running backs being the exception, most positions in fantasy football are plentiful after the studs go off of the board. If you're looking at wide receivers past the top 20, look away! Average wide receivers are a dime a dozen. Unless there is a stud staring at you, there's not much difference between Jerricho Cotchery and Nate Burleson, and you should probably check the other positions. For quarterbacks and tight ends, there are only a few worth drafting in the early rounds. If you're staring at Tony Gonzalez or Antonio Gates for tight ends in the 4th - 6th rounds, you should probably grab them, other than that, you may as well wait until late and grab someone you like from the heap. Quarterbacks will be picked up periodolicaly during the first 8 rounds. If you see a run on them, don't jump on the bandwagon unless you're looking at Brady, Peyton Manning or Drew Brees. Some might argue some others, but Tony Romo is overhyped (usually drafted too high), and doesn't have Terrell Owens anymore. Kurt Warner is just too old to use a high pick on. As for any others, just wait, there are plenty avaialable. The exception to this is the 2-QB league, in which quarterbacks play a much larger role. As for kickers and defense, why bother? Every team plays defense and every team puts up points. If you think you know what you're doing, you may just want to avoid drafting either a kicker and a defense and just find a good matchup in free agency every week.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 4 - Take few risks
It may be fun to grab a Jeremy Maclin or Matt Stafford, but history says not to. So very few rookies make a fantasy impact their first year that it's just smarter to let someone else take a shot. Take Jamal Lewis instead of Knowshon Moreno. Players that have only had one breakout season, or who are projected to have a breakout season are just not usually worth the risk. Now, don't go and take all veterans. You may break this rule if you have a good number of very reliable players (after all, how else will you find those breakout rookies/players like Adrian Peterson?), but don't load up on them. You aren't going to recreate fantasy football by filling your team with sleepers.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 5 - Pay attention to injuries
Anyone in football is capable of getting injured, but there are some players that are just flat out injury-prone. Look out for these and make sure you don't have too many on your roster. Just about every fantasy owner will have to face issues regarding injuries, but don't let yourself be in the bottom half of the league in this category. Most fantasy leagues have 2-4 teams that are bad simply because of injuries.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 6 - Don't neglect your bench
This is somewhat of a carry-over from the last tip. As said, with so many injuries, you're going to have to turn to your bench. Even if you have the perfect, healthy season, you'll still need players to fill in on backup weeks.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 7 - Take the best player available
This tip may not work if your league isn't very open to trading. If the players do trade often though, stock up on those running backs even if you have your starting lineup filled. These are the most valuable trade bait seeing as the top backs are so limited. You'll be very tempted to fill your starting lineup before your bench, but while you're picking up Heath Miller in the 8th round to be your tight end, someone else is gobbling up Braylon Edwards. Take the player who will score the most fantasy points and not the player that fits into your starting lineup.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 8 - Don't go out of your way to handcuff
While some say this is an important part of drafting, you can't start both of the players because they're on the same team. Usually there are better players available than your handcuff. Not only stat and number-wise, these players can also be useful on your bye weeks. Another benefit is that if your non-handcuffed backup's lead competition goes down, now you have trade bait!

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 9 - Fill your bench with WRs and RBs
Backup tight ends, quarterbacks, kickers, and defenses are pointless. Unless you just have this huge feeling that a certain player is going to bust out, you can fill your bye week slots for these positions from free-agency nicely. Another reason for this is that you're going to find the most fantasy points in the late rounds from running backs and wide receivers. If you have a plethora of either of these positions, you now have trade-bait and a stronger bench than most others.

Fantasy Football Draft Strategy # 10- Don't overlook preperation
Just about every rookie - and even some veterans - dont prepare enough. Sure, you know all the players from the top 6 rounds, and a fantasy football magazine or cheatsheet may be all you need early, but by the time owners start drafting bench players, you'll be scratching your head, drawing from a hat, and probably making a few veterans chuckle by taking a player who would have never even been drafted. If you're new to fantasy football, scan through a mock draft and pay attention to the last five rounds. You'll surely find a ton of players you've either never heard of or know nothing about. Don't be foolish, these players are still important to your team.

Hope these tips help. Feel free to add to the list in the comments section.

Joining A Fantasy Football League

2009-07-30T23:28:00.000-07:00

Welcome to the Fantasy Football Guide!

Readers can find tips, strategies, breakdowns, reviews, and other great info pertaining to Fantasy Football. For the new FFers out there, fantasy football is an on-paper game that has been around since the 1960s. A group of people (around 10 on average) form a league with each person taking the role of a "team owner". Each league has it's different settings and types of scoring, but all leagues are decided by compiling points based on how certain players and teams fared statistically in the real NFL.

The two major types of scoring are rotisserie and head-to-head. In a Rotisserie league, the standings basically reflect who has the most points. In head-to-head leagues, owners are matched up against each other from week to week in the season. Each owner plays out a schedule against all or most of the other teams in the league. Whichever team scores the most in a given week, wins that contest. The H2H (head to head) leagues' season usually ends around week 13 or 14, allowing for the final few weeks of the NFL regular season to be used for the playoffs.

Fantasy Football can be played with friends, co-workers, family, or strangers. There are many sites out there that offer free fantasy leagues for people to join, or even to create their own league for others to join. Two main free fantasy football sites are ESPN and Yahoo. I've used both of these and recommend either.

In subsequent entries, I'll be explaining the process of playing a fantasy football league season.

Joining A League

As stated previously, there are many free sites for joining a fantasy league. For the beginner, the best advice would be to join a free public league. This will place you in a league with 9-11 other strangers. When joining a league, you'll be able to choose options such as team name, draft type, draft time, roster type, and others.

Team names are taken seriously among some fantasy players. Some leagues have strict rules on what your team name can be, and some leagues have no rules on team name. A team name can be anything (within rules if any) the owner wants it to be. A lot of fantasy players go for humor, and many owners keep the same name from year to year. Some examples of team names are: Mississippi Mud, John's Jocks, Butterfly Catchers, Pooprod Fartroids, etc.

A fantasy league roster consists of any of the positions in the NFL. Each owner sets their roster each week, putting in the players they think will perform the best. Each team has a starting roster (players that will earn points that count towards the standings) and a bench (players on the bench are to be used as substitutes on bye weeks or when other players are injured or underperforming). Most leagues have some or all of the following roster spots:

Quarterbacks (usually 1 starter per team)
Running Backs (usually 2 starters)
Wide Receivers (usually 2-3 starters)
Slash Positions (WR/RB or WR/TE) these positions can be filled by any position associated with the spot
Tight Ends (usually 1 starter)
Kicker (usually 1 starter)
Defensive Teams (usually 1 starter - this spot consists of the entire team's defense with points accrued by allowing few points, sacks, interceptions, fumble recoveries, defensive touchdowns, etc.)
Defensive Starters (most leagues don't use individual defensive players)

For draft types, the following options may be available. Explanations for each follow the type:

Live Online Draft - The draft is held at a scheduled time in a specific place on the internet. When joining, you should be given a link to the exact place to go. Some sites will let you test your system to see if it can support the live draft, and you should do this. During a live draft, each owner drafts a player according to their draft order. Similar to the NFL draft, each team gets an allotted amount of time (usually around 90 seconds) to make their selection. After each round, the draft order USUALLY reverses, giving the first pick of the draft overall the last pick in the 2nd round for fairness. This style of draft is commonly known as a "Serpentine" draft. The draft continues with or without all the participants until all roster positions have been filled. Live drafts are fun, and I recommend that anybody try it at least once.
Offline Drafts - These drafts are entered in manually be the commissioner of the league. Make sure you understand what you're getting into before you join a league with this draft setting. There are many ways this draft can be conducted. Message board drafts are done through the message board of the league or a specified forum elsewhere. Each player posts which player they wants when it's their turn. Another option for this type of draft is meeting together with a group of people in person. The draft would then be conducted in real time with the results being entered into the league during or after the draft. There are also Free Agency drafts that are somewhat silly. At a certain time, all players are made available to the entire league. When the time comes, all mayhem lets loose and everyone can start picking up the players they want. The person with the fastest internet connection, mouse fingers, and strategy will put together the best team. There are some other options for this kind of draft, but I won't go into any more detail here. Do feel free to ask about them if you have any questions.
Auto-Pick Draft - These drafts are truly for beginners. The site hosting the league usually puts together a list of best to worst fantasy football players. Each owner can manually change their list to reflect their opinion. When the league is set to draft, a computer selects each players team by going through each owner's player list.
Auction Draft - These drafts are for the more advanced fantasy player. Each owner is given the same amount of fake (usually) money to bid on players. When the draft begins, NFL players are nominated for bidding automatically or by owners. All owners can bid on the current player being auctioned, with the high bidder getting the player on their roster. Money management and strategy play key roles here as you must have enough money to go around for all the desired positions. The more money you spend on a player, the less you'll have to fill other roster spots.

There are definately other ways to draft a fantasy team, but the above are the most common.

This all may have been redundant to those veteran fantasy football players out there, but I hope it helps out some rookies in getting started. For all of the bored readers out there, be patient, the fun will come.

Next Topic: Draft Strategies!